Fitting finale to follow familiar script

Munster v Leicester Tigers: In all of the 27 Heineken European Cup games Munster will have hosted at their Limerick citadel, none have been as potentially seismic as this

And, thanks to the planned refurbishment of the wonderful if decrepit old ground, there will never be a scene quite like it again. With anyone bar Munster, at Thomond Park, you couldn't have scripted it.

Yet no sooner had the fixtures been published at the start of the season than this game stood out like the floodlights in the darkening gloom come the 5.35pm kick-off. So it has come to pass. Not alone, unsurprisingly, is Munster's cherished 26-match winning run in the competition at Thomond on the line, so too is the winning of Pool Four, a home quarter-final and Leicester's survival in the competition.

It wouldn't be a last-day Anglo-Irish summit meeting in Limerick without plenty of permutations, so let's get them out of the way first. Munster have qualified for the last eight and a win today would ensure a home tie, probably against Wasps, Castres Stade Français or Leinster. A bonus-point defeat might also suffice. If Leicester win by more than seven points, they will finish above Munster and so consign the champions to an away quarter-final, probably against Biarritz or Llanelli.

If Leicester win by less than eight points, and Munster procure a bonus point in defeat, they would finish level and the decisive criteria would be tries scored in the two meetings, followed by points aggregate, Munster having scored two tries to one in their two-point win at Welford Road. So, Munster need to stay within seven points of Leicester and score the same number of tries.

Of all the teams in England, nay Europe, none would have travelled to Limerick with the kind of inner belief Leicester possess, and they have clearly targeted this game. They pointedly picked an ultra-physical three-quarter line against Cardiff last week and are faced by a comparatively lighter Munster back line without the injured midfield totem Trevor Halstead.

The Lifeimi Mafi-Barry Murphy axis will have to stiffen their resolve.

The Munster scrum went well last week and a bigger concern, as in the Welford Road meeting, is the lineout, but for which it's unlikely the Munster brains trust would be omitting their ultimate leader of recent years, Anthony Foley, in an unchanged side, to accommodate Mick O'Driscoll.

Only when Alan Quinlan was introduced did Munster bite back at lineout time in Welford Road.

Becoming European champions makes you a bigger scalp, and as Declan Kidney acknowledged during the week, teams have sought to target Munster's prime strength.

The Bourgoin experience should be of benefit. The problem is that Quinlan would be Munster's prime and most natural backrow outlet as well as their best means of attacking opposition ball. With Leicester having gone with two opensides in their backrow, Shane Jennings and Lewis Moody, the need for O'Driscoll appears less acute and one can't but feel Foley's savvy leadership would have been ideal for this game.

In any event, the lineout and the maul being such a source of dominance and scores for both sides, it will probably be the key battleground, and as critical as anything will be the accuracy of Frankie Sheahan's darts. One suspects Jerry Flannery and Foley might have crucial roles to play yet.

Home advantage is not liable to have a traditionally volatile Euro swing, and drama kings that they are, Munster will probably have to keep digging until the very last play.

There'll be plenty of ball-in-hand intensity through the phases, and the earth will surely shudder at breakdown time, but it will be about playing more "error-free" rugby, as Paul O'Connell put it, or at any rate cutting down on the error count of last week.

We can therefore expect Munster to grasp most three-point opportunities, to play territory and pressure, but they'll also have to apply the big, pressure defence of Welford Road. Leicester will demand that and more.

Joël Jutge did not endear himself to Munster (in Sale last season) or Leinster (in Edinburgh this season) and will be no homer. Discipline and the place-kicking of the two Irish outhalves is liable to be decisive. With Julien White aboard (the only change from last week) alongside the likes of George Chuter and Harry Ellis, Leicester have a fiery element in what will assuredly be a feisty affair.

Ian Humphreys has much of the brother's skill, not least in attacking the blindside and supporting after the pass. He is a rich talent, but on this sacred turf, O'Gara is the man.

There's never been a bigger threat, but a golden rule of the European Cup is never back against Munster, certainly not here and not when reverting to what they do best.

Let's get ready to rumble.

MUNSTER: S Payne; J Kelly, B Murphy, L Mafi, I Dowling; R O'Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, F Sheahan, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell (capt); M O'Driscoll, D Wallace, D Leamy. Replacements: J Flannery, F Pucciariello, J Coughlan, A Foley, T O'Leary, J Manning, C Cullen.

LEICESTER TIGERS: G Murphy; S Rabeni, D Hipkiss, D Gibson, A Tuilagi; I Humphreys, H Ellis; M Castrogiovanni, G Chuter, J White; L Cullen, L Deacon; L Moody, S Jennings, M Corry (capt). Replacements: J Buckland, M Ayerza, B Kay, J Crane, F Murphy, O Smith, S Vesty.

Referee: Joël Jutge (France).

Previous meetings: 2001-02 (Final) Leicester 15 Munster 9 (Millennium Stadium); 2002-03 (Leicester 7 Munster 20); 2006-07 Leicester 19 Munster 21.

Leading try scorers: Munster - Denis Leamy 3. Leicester - Lewis Moody 4, Tom Varndell 3.

Leading points scorers: Munster - Ronan O'Gara 66. Leicester - Andy Goode 46.

Odds (Paddy Power): 1/4 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 5/2 Leicester. Handicap betting (= Leicester +8 pts) 10/11 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leicester.

Forecast: Munster to win.