There's a fair amount of deja vu about tomorrow's Bank of Ireland Leinster football championship first-round meeting of Dublin and Kildare at Croke Park. Four years ago when the two counties met, Dublin were smarting at the cumulative impact of two disappointing championship exits in the previous years, whereas Kildare and their manager Mick O'Dwyer were facing a make-or-break season.
As things turned out, Dublin won after a replay and went on to lose yet another big match in that year's All-Ireland final - a result that erroneously convinced many that the team would never land the big pot. It was indeed make or break for O'Dwyer who stepped down as manager - only to return two years later for a second spell.
Only six Dublin and eight Kildare players survive from that replay, which Dublin won 1-14 to 1-9. Much has happened in the meantime, but not much that alters the perception of the teams.
Kildare's morale was lifted last year by the three exciting contests with Meath and the acquisition of three All Stars. It may be a matter of the bottle being half-full or half-empty, but the performances against Meath didn't really prove anything. Most observers felt that the quality of Kildare's play over the three matches was a step above anything previously produced by them at championship level, but they still didn't win, and against a Meath team that was struggling for form.
Kildare's weakness remains in attack. Karl O'Dwyer has joined his father in the county to add something to the attack at full forward, but his experience at this level is rather distant. A corner forward on Mickey O'Sullivan's promising Kerry team in 1992 (which crashed in flames against Clare in the Munster final), O'Dwyer had been out of intercounty football until this year.
Otherwise, Kildare's forwards rely on the same faces which mixed the good and the bad last year. In their favour is the parlous state of Dublin's defence and particularly the inside line. Paddy Christie comes back from an ankle injury to take on the full back role. Experience and fitness rather than aptitude will be the principal reservations about his game.
Christie is flanked by Paddy Moran and Brian Barnes, who has made the team after a late run on the rails. Excellent on Maurice Fitzgerald in a recent challenge against Kerry, Barnes has form on his side - too important for manager Tom Carr to overlook as he surveyed his injury-hit options at the back.
It had never been his intention to deploy Keith Barr at centre back, but the experiment of playing him at full back obviously didn't work out and that, combined with reservations about Dermot Harrington's positional sense, was enough to keep Barr in his customary position.
Harrington will be more comfortable on the wing where his pace and physique will probably be used to keep tabs on Dermot Earley whose likely drift outfield will suit his Dublin marker.
Kildare may do more than a bit of that as Martin Lynch will not play an orthodox corner forward role. This should bring Tom Carr back to the day of the Leinster final six years ago when he marked Lynch from corner back and happily trailed him out the pitch when Lynch began to roam.
Dublin's front eight is strong. The usual bluffing goes on at centrefield where Brian Stynes is named alongside Paul Bealin with Ciaran Whelan moving to the wing. Given that Whelan's best position is in the middle, he can be expected back there at various stages. It won't make a huge difference as the three will move in and out as the game progresses.
It is an area where Kildare desperately need Niall Buckley to recapture the form of a year ago if Dublin aren't to take a grip.
Ian Robertson has been given an optimum role to suit his assets of work-rate and intelligence, on the wing, but if the team fancy some route one stuff, he may also go in at full forward. Dessie Farrell's presence on the 40 is good news for Dublin only if he is fit. If in anyway inhibited, Farrell will find Glen Ryan dominating the middle.
As is the modern fashion, Dublin may well remove a corner forward, Jim Gavin, from the inside and leave the two most penetrative forwards, Declan Darcy and Jason Sherlock, who was in goalscoring form against Kerry and gets marked by former Tipperary player Brian Lacey, on their own. Darcy will face Davy Dalton (if fit, with Ronan Quinn as the likely replacement).
Physical size, better forwards and Kildare's shortcomings in scoring make Dublin the better bet.
Dublin: D Byrne; P Moran, P Christie, B Barnes; P Curran, K Barr, D Harrington; B Stynes, P Bealin; C Whelan, D Farrell, I Robertson; J Gavin, D Darcy, J Sherlock. Subs: M Pender, E Heery, M Deegan, R Boyle, E Sheehy, P Ward, B Irwin, J Magee.
Kildare: C Byrne; B Lacey, D Dalton, K Doyle; J Finn, G Ryan, A Rainbow; N Buckley, W McCreery; E McCormack, D Kerrigan, D Earley; M Lynch, K O'Dwyer, P Graven. Subs: P Flood, P McCormack, D Maher, D Behan, S Dowling, P Brennan, B Murphy, M Ryan, R Quinn.
