Rugby All-Ireland League relegation battles: Gerry Thornley takes a look at all the vital permutations as the club season draws to a close
Saturday is D-Day across all three divisions in the AIB League, as well as the qualifying round robin series. Only five clubs are still in contention for the Division One play-offs while the t's have still to be crossed and i's dotted on Dolphin's and Waterpark's promotions from the lower divisions as well as the complete play-off and relegation pictures.
Nowhere will tensions be more fraught however than in Thomond Park, where one of the biggest crowds of the day will see UL Bohemians host Co Carlow in what is a proverbial dogfight to avoid relegation from the top flight. For Carlow this is nothing new, as they were embroiled in some last-day survival heroics last season also.
Given UL Bohemians are in their first season in Division One, and UCD are also embroiled in the relegation issue after accompanying Carlow in promotion from Division Two the season before last, it underlines how difficult it is to bridge the gap between the top two divisions and cement a place in the upper tier. Ask DLSP and Old Crescent.
With only one promotion place out of 16 from Division Two again next season, as the top flight is trimmed down to 14 teams, the route back to Division One has never been more hazardous either.
UCD are just above the relegation trapdoor on points difference ahead of UL Bohs, have been hit hard by injuries and have lost five of their last six games. Yet there were signs of life in the defeat to Buccs last week and the students should survive, given they are at home to free-falling Terenure (already relegated) and know that a win will ensure their survival regardless of how events pan out in Thomond Park.
UL Bohemians will probably feel more than a little peeved that they are in this position at all. No team has lost as many games by only a score, five all told, although at least those five bonus points and gutsy back-to-back wins over St Mary's and Garryowen have helped to give them this last-day lifeline.
However, trailing Carlow by three points, because of their vastly inferior points differential (-157 as against Carlow's -109), Bohs not only need to win, but also have to ensure that Carlow don't obtain a bonus point for either scoring four tries or losing by seven points or less, or alternatively pick up a bonus point themselves for scoring four tries.
So Carlow have the luxury of knowing that a bonus point will ensure their survival - provided they don't allow UL Bohs a bonus point and presuming they don't lose by 24 points or more.
"But if you start thinking about those things then your focus is all wrong," maintains Carlow's player-coach Dan Van Zyl.
"We've got to treat it like the last two games," he says, referring to their successive wins over UCD and Blackrock. "Funnily enough, playing at home there's probably more pressure on you in a situation like this."
Van Zyl, whose only experience of Thomond Park was in the Springboks' A side's defeat to Ireland two seasons ago as a replacement scrumhalf, took over this season. "We've tried to develop more of a 15-man game. We're not in a nice position but we've improved since I've been here."
Carlow, intent on developing a local, south-east side, attribute their uncomfortable position in some part to their ill luck in meeting the bigger clubs with all their contracted players on those days, save for the trip to Galwegians. But their form has picked up lately, with more of a reversion to their traditional forward-orientated game and the influence of Mick Galwey, who has been helping them this season.
The complex scenario is likely to ensure that the issue goes right down to the last minute of the last day. When the sides last met, in Division Two in Thomond Park two seasons ago, UL Bohs prevailed thanks to a penalty in the 11th minute of injury time.
"We're expecting our biggest crowd of the season," confirmed UL Bohs' secretary David Fitzgerald. "Carlow always travel in numbers and there's big interest here given the high stakes involved on Saturday."
The home team have selected young scrumhalf Aidan Rees ahead of Dominic Malone, whose availability for a full game is affected by his Munster commitments, and hence he will be on the bench.
Prop forward Jodie Danagher returns from a lengthy spell away from league action because of injuries. His last league appearance was against Terenure early in December and, although he played in the Charity Cup final, a further injury has kept him out of first team football until this week.
Bohs' only concerns are wing-forward Philip van Esbeck and influential second row Justin O'Connell, but both are hopeful of being fit for the game.
UL BOHEMIANS (v Co Carlow): C Garvey; Treacy, K Matthews, C Finn, N Lutman; I Costello, A Rees; M Harty, G Ryan, J Danagher, B Dineen, J O'Connell, A O'Gorman, P van Esbeck, A Hartigan. Replacements: C Gilligan, D Malone, B Murphy, S O'Gorman, G Flanagan, M Porter, J O'Neill.
