Crusaders defeat would be a boost for Irish tour

In what is a rare, nay unique, example of the southern and northern hemisphere seasons dovetailing, this Saturday's Heineken …

In what is a rare, nay unique, example of the southern and northern hemisphere seasons dovetailing, this Saturday's Heineken Cup final in Cardiff coincides with the Super 12 final in Canterbury between the all-conquering Crusaders and the holders, the ACT Brumbies.

It would possibly do Ireland's chances for their impending and imposing trip to New Zealand no harm were the Crusaders to have their confidence deflated slightly.

The New Zealand outfit have won a dozen out of a dozen games in the Super 12 season thus far, rounding off their regular season campaign with that stunning 13-try, 96-19 victory at home to the New South Wales Waratahs, the second-ranked side in the competition who up until that point had lost only one of their preceding 10 games.

Having led by an astonishing 63-0 at half-time against a side who had kept their try line intact in beating the Brumbies the week before, it has been commonly described as the best Super 12 performance ever. Though they didn't scale those heights against the Otago Highlanders in the semi-final last Saturday, nontheless their 34-23 win was commandingly assured in all areas and they'll start as favourites to repeat their dramatic win over the Brumbies in Canberra in the final two seasons ago, thereby regaining the trophy which the Brumbies finally won for the first time last season. (As holy grails go, that one was Munsteresque.) New South Wales claimed to have binned their Canterbury horror video without looking at it, but try though they might the wounds were still there last Saturday. As expected, the Brumbies turned the earlier defeat to the Waratahs on its head in the semi-final, winning 51-10.

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As in Europe, this has ensured a fitting finale, for the two best teams have undoubtedly qualified for the decider. Indeed, the one team which the Crusaders would fear the most would assuredly be the Brumbies, given the more unorthodox box of tricks which Gregan, Larkham and co can throw up.

Canterbury's success has relevance for Ireland because as things stand, about a dozen of the All Blacks starting line-up, which Ireland will face on June 15th in Dunedin, could be drawn from the Crusaders, all the more so in the light of Jeff Wilson's surprise announcement after Saturday's semi-final that he is retiring from rugby.

Having taken a sabattical from the game he had seemingly returned a revitalised and refreshed figure this season, and though on the losing side on Saturday still managed to score a try and look an altogether more potent and dangerous full-back than his Canterbury counterpart and incumbent All Black number 15, the relatively prosaic Leon McDonald.

Wilson, still only 28, intends to concentrate on cricket instead. An All Blacks who wants to be an all white. Go figure.

In any event, the 22-man squad for the All Blacks' forthcoming games against Italy, Ireland (twice) and Fiji will be announced next Monday and with Christian Cullen still looking for his best form after a fourth knee operation, McDonald is now certain to retain the full back position.

Another famous face who might be missing from the All Black line-up come June 15th is Jonah Lomu. The mountainesque winger hasn't shown his best from for Wellington this year and the expectation is that the Crusaders' Caleb Ralph or Waikato's Roger Randle may be chosen on the left-wing, with Doug Howlettt on the other, and Lomu missing the cut altogether as he's such a specialist left winger.

As was the case last November, once again the midfield axis is likely to be Aaron Mauger and Tana Umaga, with Andrew Mehrtens (at his dominant best just now) expected to renew his Crusaders' partnership with the in-form Justin Marshall.

The other major change from the side which Ireland faced last November will be at hooker, for the then All Blacks' captain Anton Oliver has had to undergo an achilles tendon operation recently. He will miss the Tri Nations as well and so the front row is likely to be drawn entirely from the Crusaders - Greg Feek, Martin Hanett and Greg Somerville.

Another Crusader, Chris Jack, is again expected to be in the second row alongside the Highlanders' Simon Maling, with the Crusaders' captain Reuben Thorne and the Otago's Taine Rande, back in favour, vying for the number six jersey. Thorne, potentially Oliver's replacement as skipper, will probably get the nod alongside provincial teammates Robertson and the brilliant Richard McCaw.

The likes of Kees Meeuws, Tom Willis, Norm Maxwell, Byron Kelleher, Tony Brown and Ben Blair will complete the squad, thus, alas, leaving no room for the gifted Carlos Spencer. There are high hopes of this squad in this season's Tri-Nations, all the more so as South African rugby is in utter turmoil after their four Super 12 teams finished in the bottom half.

The Crusaders' success, along with the good showing of the Highlanders, and the relative improvement for the Auckland Blues (sixth), if less so the Chiefs (eighth) and the Hurricanes (ninth), has lifted the gloom surrounding this rugby crazy country following their failure to co-host the World Cup.

Nevertheless, a sour taste remains and a former High Court judge is leading an independent inquiry into that whole fiasco. With most New Zealanders now accepting that the blame for their failed co-hosting bid lies largely with their own officials, NZRU general secretary David Rutherford and chairman Murray McCaw will again come under pressure when the results of that inquiry are made public, probably during Ireland's tour.

The slightly ominous news from an Irish viewpoint is that whereas the Italian and Fijian friendlies may be treated with a somewhat experimental approach, the Irish games are seen as more of a dry-run for the All Blacks prior to their opening grudge match in the Tri-Nations against the Wallabies on July 12th in Christchurch.

John Mitchell is not the type to experiment excessively anyhow and the expectation is that the All Blacks team to face the Wallabies should ideally be the same as that which faces Ireland. Nor will there be too much light relief in the tour opener against an NPC Division Two selection in Timaru on June 8th.

Coached by the one-time Bective and Greystones coach Noel McQuilkin, the Timaru outfit are being likenened to a mid-table division one provincial outfit, and the bulk of them will be eager to press their claims for a Division One or Super 12 contract. In other words, they'll be hungry. Very hungry.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times