Canny Ulster still not out

Embryonic tables at the outset of any campaign have a certain snakes and ladders look to them. To coin one of Brian Kerr's favourite phrases in his time as manager of St Patrick's Athletic - possibly sacrilegious in this column, but what the heck - only when everyone has played each other once does the table tell no lies.

So, applying Kerrism to the Interprovincial Championship, only by Saturday morning did this season's table paint a truly accurate picture of developments so far. And comparing this season's mid-term report to last season's one simple deduction can be drawn - Leinster have made the biggest strides and at Ulster's expense.

What movement there's been has been minimal, what with Munster extending their unbeaten run to two years and 12 matches in which time they've beaten the others three times each. They're still the benchmark, while Connacht are still battling against the odds, and without a win in 10 interpros.

All the while, Leinster and Ulster have been oscillating between the two extremes and while Leinster deserve to stand second at the moment, there's still little between them.

As Matt Williams ventured after Friday night's hard-won win over Ulster at Donnybrook in advance of next Friday's crucial rematch, "it'll be a helluva night in Ravenhill. If they win that game they've wiped this loss out, and that's the first thing I said to the lads tonight."

Although Leinster's lineout and recycling was significantly superior to Ulster's, ultimately the game hinged on the game's sole try, Denis Hickie's 65th minute intercept.

In the heel of the hunt Ulster had looked at least as likely to win for the first 50 minutes or so, and had they converted that pivotal opportunity would have led by two or four points entering the last 15 minutes instead of trailing by ten.

It may not be flowing like honey, but it's a damned tough competition, as tough as the European Cup pool stages. The difference is that the Heineken Cup contains new opposition and more variety. Familiarity may not breed contempt in the interpros, for the audiences are increasing each year, but it has bred insider knowledge which has benefitted defences more than attacks.

"We know what each other is going to do before it's done," observed Harry Williams, a lament echoed already by Declan Kidney and several others. How else to explain the reduction in tries scored from 34 last season to 22 this season, and this from the exact same six match-ups? Nor can this reduction be attributed to Connacht partially plugging the holes in what was a sieve-like defence last season, verification that they have considerably more spirit, defensive organisation and fitness this season. Ulster's try-rate is down, so too most significantly is Munster's (seven tries thus far, compared to 17 last season) whereas Leinster's is up from four to six.

This is further evidence that Leinster have made the most strides this season (even if that process had begun in the second half of last season) and they are entitled to be regarded as the prime challengers to Munster's crown now. Against that, of course, they could easily be beaten in Ravenhill.

Even so, had Emmet Farrell been there for the last three Fridays and continued on from late last season in tandem with Brian O'Driscoll, then Leinster would probably be doing better still.

Bearing these factors in mind, opinions fluctuated wildly on the merit of Leinster's display and the game itself on Friday night, from the relatively harsh to the more understanding.

Leinster's kicking game was always liable to be inferior to Ulster's, and they were always going to find their visitors a tough nut to crack. Ulster's defensive organisation under the canny Williams, even through the lows of last season, has invariably been sound and as against Munster (when successfully targeting Mike Mullins) once again they had done their homework and set their stall out accordingly.

Realising that Leinster are made for and inclined toward a quick, off the top, running game out wide, Ulster set out to slow down their ruck ball (as Munster had done) largely through the spoiling of Andy Ward. (This reached laughable proportions once, when Hickie was penalised for not releasing even though Ward had stolen the ball several seconds before and was himself holding onto it.) Thereafter they didn't over-commit to rucks and fanned out across the pitch.

The slowness of the ruck ball didn't help either team with both scrumhalves tending to weigh up their options in sharp contrast to the speed with which Peter Stringer clears the ball away (helped as he is by his telepathic understanding with Ronan O'Gara). This remains a big edge for Munster.

Leinster could also do with a little more width along the line and be a bit more route one closer in to target runners like Victor Costello and the props, though that said, Ward was also very effective in bringing down Costello short of the gain line.

However, Leinster still began to breach the white line more often as the match wore on, and their finishing will assuredly get better. Most surprising of all was their concentration and mental strength over the 80 minutes, which Matt Williams afterwards admitted was something he has cited as a Leinster failing heretofore. By contrast, as his namesake conceded, Ulster surprisingly panicked a bit, resorting to catch-up. "We need a wee bit more mental strength."

Leinster's strength on the bench - they've used 25 players already to Ulster's 19 - and fitness levels also shone through, all the more so considering that the ball was in play for over 45 minutes, way above the norm of 30-odd.

Leinster have actually coped very well in the absence of Farrell and until Friday O'Driscoll, and it's hard to dispute Matt Williams' post-match assertion on Friday night that "this was another step forward".