SCOTLAND'S one month metamorphosis from desperate no hopers, unable to beat even Western Samoa or Italy, to prospective Five Nations champions defies rational explanation beyond the fairly obvious: that they were never as bad as they were painted. We say much the same thing every year.
On the other hand, as they make the third step along the Grand Slam road in the 100th Wales Scotland match (Wales have won 4, Scotland 43) at the Arms Park this afternoon, it would be equally rational to suggest they are not - not yet awhile, anyway - as good as they are painted either.
As they say so themselves, this is not to denigrate their unexpected achievements in beating Ireland and more especially France. But the manner in which the Scots outran the French set an unlikely, utterly exhilarating example of how this game can - should - be played and if that has the fortunate corollary of providing entertainment we are all twice blessed.
The Scots being nothing if not canny, in the euphoria that followed the French match a strategic managerial plan one imagines almost as detailed as the one the players take on the field - has been in operation to reduce expectations. Why, Jim Telfer has even been heard to propound the theory that his team's performances to date have been quite deeply flawed.
"For young players, they have grown up very quickly and through their own efforts everything has been rosy so far," he said yesterday.
"But the downturn will come sometime; I've been in the game long enough to know it's not all roses and wine." The manager's plan is to play down the suddenly inflated Scottish sense anticipation, basing his caution on Scotland's abysmal record in Cardiff, where they have won only four times since the second World War and only six in the 113 years of this inter Celtic rivalry. Telfer himself never managed it in his seven seasons playing for Scotland.
"It tends to be the nature of a Celtic race to go from one extreme to the other without much justification," he said.
The Welsh know exactly how he feels. One of Kevin Bowring's tasks as Wales coach since the game at Twickenham a fortnight ago has been to temper his own people's expectation - and Wales lost, don't forget. "Consistency in winning", to use Telfer's expression, has been unknown to Wales since 1979, remembering the 1988 Triple Crown and 1994 championship were isolated successes.
Still, a fresh start has been made with a young side willing, but not yet as able as the Scots, to play a rugby of breathless movement in which players seek space rather than bodily contact.
But as yet Wales, unlike Scotland, are a collection of talented individuals as opposed to a team and whether they put a stop to the Scots' progress will depend on how far the team building process has gone in the brief time since the English defeat. Telfer, we may be certain has seldom if ever experienced fear in his life but this is the word he uses to describe his apprehensions for today.
"They Welsh have always produced natural, gifted players," he said. "Recently they haven't been unable to put them all together at the senior level and get a team that can be consistently winning. I fear the individual skills of players who come up through a tougher route than ours in club competition and more recently in European competition."
Wales would gladly oblige him but their capacity to turn good intentions into hard achievement is completely unproved. Too many times in too many years too much consolation has been taken when a combative performance has reduced a likely rout into something more honourable and no one can yet predict that the England Wales match was any different.
As a means to an end Bowring has sought to break the Welsh game down to its most basic essentials: roughly speaking, the forwards winning the ball and the backs using it, which he says also happens to be the Scottish way.
