Can Leinster’s commoners finally challenge Dublin aristocracy?

This story might not be 100 per cent true but does that mean you’d rather not hear it? Think of it as coming via the Eternal Taoiseach’s Man With Two Pints. If Enda Kenny can get away with it, let’s presume you can hold your nose and live with it.

It comes from a cousin of mine through a friend of his who knows the lad who runs the bar in the Gaelic Grounds in Drogheda. Back in January, Louth hosted Dublin in the O’Byrne Cup – the famed Dublin third-string wick that burned through the rest of the Leinster wax in the post-hibernation competition for 2017.

It was a grand old afternoon for all concerned. A busload of Dubs fans landed down mid-morning and rang ahead to get them to open the bar early. The local coffee stall-holders had their best day in years. And despite Louth getting beaten, everyone went home with the winter shortened just that little bit.

Time and tides tell us that Dublin won't keep winning forever and that there has to be a turning point somewhere along the way

The kicker comes from the barman, though. At the end of a bonanza day – in January no less – he found a little present waiting for him in the Dublin dressing room. There, sitting in the middle of the floor, was a heap of leftover Lucozade Sport. Our man being the entrepreneurial type, he immediately got onto his wholesalers and cancelled his next order and proceeded to stock the fridge. Took him a fortnight to sell it all. Trickle-down economics, lads.

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There is truth and there is believability. Whatever the level of the former in that story, it wouldn’t lack for the latter among supporters in the poor, put-upon Leinster counties outside Dublin. As we hunker down for another year of another apparently pointless Leinster championship, it sounds appropriately let-them-eat-cake-ish for the times that are in it.

Turning point

And yet, maybe it’s just that the league is so long ago now that the memory has been corrupted, but it wouldn’t be at all surprising to this small corner of the pundit puddle if this was the year Leinster started coming back. Time and tides tell us that Dublin won’t keep winning forever and that there has to be a turning point somewhere along the way. Is it really so beyond the beyonds that it might be closer at hand than we imagine?

At the very least, the fashion for declaring that there is nothing to see in the football championship outside of Ulster before August has to be considered severely outmoded in 2017. Presuming they come to pass, the clashes between Tipperary and Cork in Munster and Galway and Mayo in Connacht will comfortably outstrip most of what we see in the north between now and the middle of June.

And even though Dublin will surely walk to a seven-in-a-row in Leinster, there is at least something to be curious about in the east again. Meath and Kildare are scheduled to cross paths in the Leinster semi-final on Saturday June 17th. Assuming they both make it there unscathed, they both have a whiff of more serious intent about them now than has been the case.

The numbers are stark when it comes to Leinster counties other than Dublin in the championship during this decade. Meath haven’t been in an All-Ireland quarter-final since 2010. Kildare have been in four but the last two ended in punishment beatings from Cork and Kerry. If you take it that there have been 56 quarter-final spots available over the decade – seven years, eight spots a year – Leinster counties have filled 13 of them. Take out Dublin and Leinster counties have filled just six of the remaining 49.

That last 12 round has a way of telling you the bald truth of your existence

The big killer of mid-range Leinster teams in the championship this decade has been round four of the qualifiers. Seven different Leinster counties have found themselves there since 2010 and only Kildare have managed to escape it by beating a team from outside Leinster. Dublin beat Louth in 2010 and Laois beat Meath in 2012 – otherwise, it has been a graveyard for the likes of Westmeath, Wexford, Meath and even Kildare themselves in 2014.

Half-interested seagulls

That last 12 round has a way of telling you the bald truth of your existence. Most of the time, it’s not in Croke Park. And if it is, it’s generally on one of those late-July, early-August Saturdays where your championship dream expires to an audience of half-interested seagulls. It’s 70 minutes from an All-Ireland quarter-final but it barely feels like the same sport.

That’s the job Leinster teams have on their hands going into the championship. Get to that last 12 spot and get beyond it. Four of them were promoted in the league, the most since 2012. Only one was relegated, the fewest since 2011. Five Leinster teams fought out the league finals – not a single Ulster one made it that far.

These things ebb and flow and the much-ballyhooed Ulster championship might not just be the diamond they make it out to be. For all the derision, much of it deserved, it’s not immediately clear why a putative meeting of, say, Louth and Meath on June 3rd should be considered a lesser game than Down v Armagh the next day. Would Kildare v Laois or Longford really be such a non-event compared to Tyrone v Derry? The recent history of that fixture would make it hard to argue in its favour.

So, in summary, lay off the Leinster championship, right? Dublin’s royal seat isn’t in jeopardy just yet but don’t be surprised if in time to come we pinpoint 2017 as the year the peasants started to lay their hands on pikes worth sharpening.