Avenging Munster may just shade it

LIGHTS, CAMERAS and the action part is guaranteed. The Munster-Leinster rivalry has become one of the edgiest in the world over the last five years and coming off the back of the Six Nations, in which 17 of tonight’s respective squads featured, only heightens this friendly edge. This is personal.

As ever therefore, this is a total one-off. Form, league standings and all the rest of it can be largely dismissed; witness the season’s first meeting at a packed Aviva which spurred Leinster to only their second win in five games this season, and so ended Munster’s four-match winning start to the campaign. The ripple effects arguably lasted for weeks too.

Despite some eye-catching selections, not least by Munster, there are some fascinating head-to-heads with the World Cup in mind. Hence, the Ireland management will be there in force, if more inclined than most to watch proceedings through their fingers.

The duel between Ronan O’Gara and Jonathan Sexton, two playmakers in excellent form, is the most obvious, and Leo Cullen will be straining at the leash after his sequence of Six Nations bit parts, but just as intriguing will be the performances of the two number sevens – the 34-year-old warrior that is David Wallace against his Ireland backrow colleague and heir apparent as ball-carrier/wrecking ball, the 24-year-old Seán O’Brien.

More revealing still might be the duel alongside them at six between the 27-year-old Donnacha Ryan and 26-year-old Kevin McLaughlin, two hard-hitting, hard-carrying line-out options who probably possess the best credentials as a backrower cum lock which the Irish management are clearly considering for the NZ odyssey.

Both therefore will be grateful for this opportunity, not least Ryan given it sees Denis Leamy consigned to the bench, with the in-form James Coughlan at number eight. Tony McGahan also opts for the pace of Felix Jones in the back three along with the in-form Keith Earls, while Conor Murray is also preferred at scrum-half to Peter Stringer.

For his part, Joe Schmidt has pretty much gone for his strongest available line-up a week before their massive Heineken Cup quarter-final at home to the rampant Leicester Tigers, and reverting to type in big away games, has opted for the physicality from the off of Isaac Boss.

It’s worth recalling this policy paid dividends in the October meeting, not least when Eoin Reddan was sprung from the bench to further enhance the tempo being generated by the likes of Cian Healy and O’Brien up front.

Then, as in the previous two victories over Munster, Leinster upped their intensity decisively at a key juncture to deservedly win close contests.

Pride is therefore probably the biggest spur of all, for perhaps the most relevant statistic is that having completed their drive for five, Leinster are now in the mix for six. Even here though, one could look at it two ways; on the one hand it gives Munster a burning desire for vengeance, on the other Leinster simply have Munster’s number. Not since this weekend two years ago have Munster managed either a win or a try over their arch friends and enemies.

That must indeed rankle down Munster way, although it also highlights how little change they’ve been getting out of the Leinster pack – and the Leinster defence. This is the same Leinster frontrow, and six of the pack (Cullen and Kevin McLaughlin returning) that fronted up in early October, whereas Tony Buckley returns for John Hayes. Buckley has had problems with Healy in the past, though apparently Munster have placed huge focus on their scrum this week.

Perhaps the five-match sequence also highlights how Munster have gone about it, for they need to go back to basics a little, stop playing so much behind the gain line and generate space at the back for O’Gara’s boot to work its magic.

Perhaps the biggest factor of all is simply Paul O’Connell. Significantly, he hasn’t started any of the last four meetings between the sides, and hasn’t played at all in any of the last three and judging by his enthusiastic carrying in Cardiff last week, he is primed to be a rallying point for Donncha O’Callaghan and co.

While Munster’s curious selection gives them enormous experience on the bench – it doesn’t obviously suggest they are now a better team in these head-to-heads. And it’s not beyond the bounds that Leinster’s cooler heads, confidence, water-tight defence and sharper finishing will see them home again. But, notorious for their performances in the week before Heineken Cup games, Munster do not have that distraction next week.

Both, it’s true, have bigger fish to fry, starting next weekend, and it could be that they may meet again in the league play-offs. For that to happen, Leinster’s need for league points here is the greater. But their fish is bigger, whereas in front of a home full house, and given recent history, this has more of a cup final feel to it for Munster.

BETTING (Paddy Power):8/13 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 13/10 Leinster. Handicap odds (Leinster + 3pts) 10/11 Munster, 19/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.

FORECAST:Munster, perhaps, by a whisker.