Australia's need may just be greater

RUGBY: Reeling from recent blows to their respective morales, and each coming off their most chastening defeat in years, Ireland…

RUGBY: Reeling from recent blows to their respective morales, and each coming off their most chastening defeat in years, Ireland and Australia will have been eyeing each other up with a glint in their eye. "Nice to see you, need to beat you."

Ireland's sudden downward graph, three losses in a row against frontline opposition, and Australia's worst run of defeats (seven) since 1969, leave both in desperate need of a big performance and primarily a win, with Australia's need for the latter possibly greater.

Of the two Eddies, Mr Jones must be in bigger peril than Mr O'Sullivan, simply because of the scale of last week's destruction by the English pack in scrum, especially, and maul.

It stunned the Aussie rugby public, and to lose to Ireland presumably wouldn't bear thinking about, not only for Jones but for players such as the unfairly criticised George Gregan.

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The Wallabies have had a tough itinerary and are feeling the effects of the decline of Queensland, who, a la Munster with Ireland, have provided much of Australia's hard edge up front. Beating Ireland and Wales next week looks their only hope of salvation.

Coming after an anti-climactic Six Nations, the ease with which the brilliant All Blacks dismissed Ireland was deeply concerning. Perhaps it was a one-off, with the post-Lions hangover contributing to Ireland's palpable lack of self-belief, as Fran Cotton observed when remarking: "I don't know who their (the All Blacks) opponents were at Lansdowne Road last weekend, but that wasn't Ireland."

Necessity being the mother of invention, Jones has had to plump for two props with little Super 12 rugby experience, not to mention a combined tally of about 20 minutes' Test rugby.

O'Sullivan observed yesterday: "Everybody has to win their first few caps and see how it goes, but I'm not expecting them to be suddenly weakened by it, and I believe as well - because we don't know a lot about these lads - that they're strong around the pitch as well."

Were the Irish scrum to send the Australian pack backpedalling at the first few put-ins, it would surely have the Wallabies thinking 'here we go again'. But the Irish scrum is not known for being an offensive weapon.

Furthermore, the forecast is even better for today than it has been over the last couple of days, and as is the way of these things, it would be no surprise if the scrum didn't become a major issue. Indeed, with Chris White in charge, the ingredients are there for a fast, fluid, entertaining game.

More likely, Ireland's best means of gaining a decisive advantage is in the lineout. Failing that, the breakdown area and the gain line, especially in midfield, could be critical.

That the Wallabies have been obdurately sticky opponents on the scoreboard, even when pulverised up front, is testimony to their unshakeable self-confidence and the breakdown work of Phil Waugh and converted number eight George Smith.

Similarly, O'Sullivan has opted for Denis Leamy at eight alongside Johnny O'Connor, but Smith and Waugh are vastly more experienced Test operators.

It'll be intriguing to see how Ireland attempt to go about beating Australia. When it was put to O'Sullivan that Jones had forecast Ireland would return to a kicking game, he smiled broadly and merely responded: "I'm happy to hear that."

Jones is normally inclined to indulge in some pre-match mind games, and Alan Gaffney was perhaps being a tad cheeky when commenting: "We just hope to go out there and attack, but obviously Ireland also have a backline with plenty of fire-power even without O'Driscoll, and if Eddie (O'Sullivan) elects to play the attacking brand of rugby he attempted last week against the All Blacks it should be an entertaining afternoon."

O'Sullivan yesterday spoke of developing a new brand of rugby that will require time, but then again more of a tactical mixture would surely be a better means of beating the Wallabies. And those who ignore history are apt to repeat it.

If Andrew Trimble plays exclusively at outside centre, he'll need to be a trump card, though occasionally alternating with Gordon D'Arcy will give the latter more chances of breaking the Australian defensive line.

If Ireland don't dominate up front, or at any rate lineout time, they'll have their hands full defensively.

Gregan will take a few steps to fix the back row and if he's not launching runners close in, Mat Rogers - in classical rugby league style - will take it up flat and pass late off either shoulder.

Three of Australia's four tries against the All Blacks, when cutting a 20-0 deficit to a point before losing 34-24 in Auckland, came from runners taking late, flat passes from the halves to breach the black line.

Winger Mark Gerrard was responsible for two of them, and one can well imagine Rogers launching blindside wingers at the 10 channel, or Lote Tuqiri on the cutback.

Trimble will not have experienced anything like the pace, precision and potency of these Wallabies, while you can't but wonder if Shane Horgan's physical presence will be missed in midfield. The Wallabies look to have more impact off their bench and game-breaking ability in their backline. And ultimately, their need may be the greater.

Head-to-head: Played 23, Ireland 7 wins, Australia 16 wins.

Highest scores: Ireland 27-12 in 1979, Australia 46-10 in 1999.

Biggest wins: Ireland 27-12 in 1979, Australia 46-10 in 1999.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 5/2 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 2/7 Australia. Handicap odds (= Ireland +8pts) 10/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Australia.

Forecast: Australia to win.