Although Connacht have secured a place in the URC playoffs by dint of their 26-5 bonus-point win away to Edinburgh on Friday night, their presence in next season’s Champions Cup next year is not yet guaranteed. The playoff hopes of both Munster and Ulster, along with their Champions Cup qualification, also remains undecided pending Saturday’s final round of matches.
Here is how things stand for each of the four provinces.
Saturday’s games
Bulls v Benetton, 3pm
Leinster v Ospreys, 5.15pm (TG4 & Premier Sports)
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Scarlets v Dragons, 5.15pm
Munster v Lions, 7.45pm (Premier Sports)
Leinster
Leo Cullen’s side sit third side and can overtake the Stormers after their 22-16 loss in Cardiff on Friday night by beating the Ospreys at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday (kick-off 5.15pm). Leinster must earn at least three match points, as in the event of them picking up two points both sides would finish level on 60 points and the Stormers have won more games.
As things stand, Glasgow have secured top seeding in the playoffs following their 26-22 win over Ulster in Belfast on Friday night, while Leinster can secure second place, and the prospect of a home semi-final as well as a home quarter-final.
Were Glasgow to win a home quarter-final they would have to move a home semi-final from Scotstoun – as it is being handed over to Glasgow 2026 for Commonwealth Games preparations – to Murrayfield.
However, were they to win that, Murrayfield would not be available for the final as it is being used for concerts, and neither would any of the alternative football venues. The Warriors have been exploring the possibility of moving a ‘home’ final to the Affidea Stadium in Belfast and head coach Franco Smith is receptive to that idea.
Connacht
Stuart Lancaster’s side sit sixth on 54 points after their clinical 26-5 victory away to Edinburgh, an eighth win in their last nine URC games and are thus assured of a place in the playoffs.
However if Munster beat the Lions at Thomond Park on Saturday (kick-off 7.45pm) they would move above Connacht and if the South African side pick up a bonus point they would also overtake Lancaster’s team as they’d have the same number of wins but the better points difference.
That would mean Connacht finish in eighth place (and be away to Glasgow in the quarter-finals) and ahead of Ulster. But Richie Murphy’s side can earn qualification for next season’s Champions Cup by beating Montpellier in the Challenge Cup final next Friday night in Bilbao.
In that scenario, Connacht would have to win the URC to qualify for next season’s Champions Cup, meaning the seventh placed side would miss out.
Alternatively, if Munster beat the Lions and deny the latter even a bonus point, Connacht will finish seventh and be away to Leinster in the quarter-finals.
Munster
Munster go into Saturday’s final games of the regular season outside the top eight and thus requiring at least one bonus point against the Lions at Thomond Park on Saturday (kick-off 7.45pm) to finish above Ulster by dint of winning more games.
Unless the Bulls slip up at home to Benetton (kick-off 3pm Irish time) a top-four finish, and hence a home quarter-final, looks beyond Munster. A win of any kind will likely see them finish fifth and face a quarter-final away to the Bulls.
Ulster
Richie Murphy’s side sit precariously in eighth place, a point above Munster, and thus requiring the Lions to win at Thomond Park and deny Munster a losing bonus point in order to finish in the top eight.
If they are edged out of the top eight, Ulster will not be in the playoffs and will throw all they can at the Challenge Cup final against Montpellier next Friday in Bilbao.
Winning that game would earn them a first trophy in 20 years and qualification for next season’s Champions Cup. However, their casualty list is mounting, with Iain Henderson, Stuart McCloskey and Jacob Stockdale among those sidelined.
Best case scenario
All four Irish sides cannot now qualify for the URC playoffs but for the quartet to make next season’s Champions Cup, it would require Munster to beat the Lions without letting the South African side earn a bonus point and for Ulster to then beat Montpellier next Friday night.
