The weekly shopping bill has become the subject of quite a heated debate over the past few years, as it has increased at a pace significantly in advance of the headline inflation rate.
Indeed, the latest Central Statistics Office figures show that grocery prices are increasing by 6 per cent year-on-year, at a time when general inflation has fallen back to about 2 per cent.
The key question is why grocery prices should be rising so quickly. According to Dale Crammond, director of Meat Industry Ireland at Ibec, there is no simple answer. “Some of the commentary associated with higher prices tends to focus less on the key drivers and more on a presumptive narrative around price gouging and profiteering, familiar themes, which lack supporting evidence,” he says.
“The reality is altogether different. The Competition and Consumer Protection Commission [CCPC] in its recently updated high-level analysis of the Irish grocery retail sector [August 2025] concluded that there is no evidence to indicate that competition is not working in the Irish grocery retail sector and that food price increases in Ireland have been well below the European average.”
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He points out that since 2022, food price inflation across the globe has been unprecedented as a result of the economic bounce back from Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused rapid grain, fertiliser and energy cost inflation as well as supply chain disruptions.
“The sharp increase in inflation of agri-food inputs initially drove production costs well beyond historic levels and while input costs have moderated, the impact of price rises over that period has endured,” he says. “In addition, farmers have borne the cost of the compliance adjustments of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent by the end of this decade.”
Reduced supply also comes into play. “Bord Bia estimates that cattle and beef production supply in Ireland will be down by approximately 7 per cent in 2025, a reduction of approximately 90,000 head,” he notes. “This trend is also present across both the EU and UK markets, where the major beef-producing nations have experienced declines in production of significant scale. This has shifted the supply-demand balance dramatically from a supply surplus to a supply deficit, and this inevitably has contributed to stronger producer prices at farm level.”
On the consumption side, demand for red meat remains strong in both Ireland and our main markets, including Britain and the EU, he adds. “Consumers appreciate the nutritional benefits of red meat as part of a balanced diet, and thankfully, this is expected to remain the case.”
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The processing sector has also experienced very significant cost increases across several key inputs such as energy, labour, transport, and business compliance, he points out. “Our sector, which has a dependency on the employment permit system, was subject to a 30 per cent increase in mandated salary costs early in 2024. The regulatory burden placed on industry, often without any impact assessment, has led to further cost increases, which have been carried across the supply chain.”
Abundance of sustainably produced food is the bedrock of the industry’s future, says Crammond. “Europe must get its own house in order, and thankfully, the issue of food security has moved up the political agenda. Importing selected cheap beef cuts from the Mercosur block of countries to fill any void in domestic production is not the answer.
“Policy coherence is key; it is crucial to the future of our industry that the Government can secure a renewal of the Nitrates Derogation. The entire sector is determined to continue on the pathway of water quality improvements. Failure to renew the derogation will cause significant harm to the family farm model of livestock production, and to the rural economy with economic loses across the dairy and beef sectors estimated at €1 billion annually. Critically, there is no scientific evidence available to confirm that farming without a derogation will improve water quality.”
The Government must build on current strong returns at farm level and seek to deliver a well-funded Common Agriculture Policy (Cap) budget, he contends. “The new scheme post 2027 will need to be production-oriented, supporting active farmers who are committed to sustainable food production,” he continues. “Generational renewal is key, transferring farms to the next generation in a way that respects both the retiree and the young farmer starting out on their journey is an important consideration.
“Finally, our Government must deliver a proportionate regulatory environment that supports and does not hinder businesses,” he says. “This remains a key priority for our sector. We welcome the Government’s action plan on competitiveness and productivity, though actions speak louder than words. If we can achieve policy coherence across all these areas, the consumer will be the ultimate winner.”
