Gin is still the tonic

What goes up must come down, or so they say. Many drinks industry players have been bracing for a drop-off in global gin sales – or at least a levelling off of the category’s growth – and forecasting what might become the “next gin” (rum being a front-runner).

Yet drinks industry analyst IWSR painted a positive picture for the global gin market in its 2018–2023 prediction of an ever-dynamic category full of innovation, with buoyant growth across various price categories and global markets, and continued investment as corporate consolidation absorbs existing craft gin brands and makes way for new ones.

The analyst’s optimism appears to have been borne out. Gin continues to out-perform all other spirits. In the UK, which remains a global market leader both in terms of gin production and consumption, gin remains the largest category sales-wise and growth-wise. Even in the US, where gin sales were getting sluggish pre-pandemic, there were signs of a comeback for the spirit in the latter stages of lockdown. According to Statista, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global gin market is set to grow annually by 6.71 per cent over the next five years.

Our thirst for flavoured gins, pink and otherwise, shows little sign of slowing. If last year’s 15 per cent growth in the gin category sounds impressive (as reported by US-based data analytics and market research company, IRI) it pales in comparison to that of flavoured gins which fluctuated between 30-90 per cent growth over the same year. In a crowded market, differentiation is key. Expect to see further innovations in flavour profiles and distilling methods, with producers drawing techniques from perfume production and other related industries.

Pre-pandemic, bartenders were key influencers regarding our choice of spirit. Bacardi's global brand ambassador survey 2020 confirmed that gin remains the top trending spirit globally (followed by agave-based spirits, vermouth and amaro) and that bartenders in Europe are particularly gin-friendly. Even without their direct influence, however, we have been turning to gin as a versatile choice. During our year of lockdowns, gin-based cocktails led the way globally in takeaway cocktail sales, and gin proved a strong performer as consumers stocked up home bars, with online sales giving traditional retailers a run for their money.

While the on-trade is sure to make impressive comeback efforts – expect exciting reinventions of bars as we know them – the move to home drinking has only just begun. Having fostered a direct connection with consumers in a year of virtual tasting clubs, online promotions and ecommerce investment, brands are likely to further explore these more personalised connections. This tallies with our desire to support brands and companies that we see to be giving back to community causes. It also drives innovation in packaging, with pouches offering a portable alternative to bottles or eco-friendly refills to support “a bottle for life”.

So, you’re welcome to join the party, rum – but perhaps not at the top table quite yet.