Main Points
- We are in the final few days of the Dublin Central and Galway West byelection campaigns
- Voting takes place from 7am to 10pm on Friday and with crowded fields of candidates in both constituencies transfers are set to be decisive
- Counting starts on Saturday morning with results expected by early evening
- Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam says he will work to expand CCTV cameras if elected
- Gerry Hutch, who gardaí have previously described in court as the figurehead of the Hutch crime gang involved in the Kinahan-Hutch feud, has been canvassing in Dublin
Key Reads
- What are voters’ five big issues in Dublin Central and Galway West byelections?
- Four things to watch in the last week of campaigning
- Investigation: Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection
- Janice Boylan leads Dublin Central byelection race with Gerry Hutch in third, poll shows
- Fine Gael, Independent Ireland, Labour in strongest contention for Galway West seat – poll
That concludes Tuesday’s live coverage of the Dublin Central and Galway West byelection campaigns.
Taoiseach has ‘Micheál in Wonderland’ logic, Bacik tells Dáil
Parliamentary Correspondent Marie O’Halloran writes:
Labour leader Ivana Bacik has mentioned the upcoming byelections in the Dáil and accused Taoiseach Micheál Martin of having “Micheál in Wonderland logic” as she highlighted a record increase in eviction notices in the first three months of the year, up 50 per cent.
Bacik made the reference to the byelections – TDs have previously been warned by the Ceann Comhairle to avoid referring to the byelections or candidates in the Dáil – after Martin accused her of trying to have things on housing “both ways”.
She claimed the 7,000 eviction notices were “the inevitable consequence of your Government’s policies. You gave private landlords a year’s notice that they could jack up rents, but only if they got rid of existing tenants before the end of March.”
The Taoiseach said the “protection elements of the reforms” have caused some smaller landlords perhaps to exit the market” but the Labour leader was trying to “portray it as an incentive to developers and landlords”.
Some landlords objected to the six years protection for tenants and opted out but a higher number, more than 13,000 have actually entered the market.
He said “you do need to have a settled landscape for the next decade or so in terms of the investment side of the equation” to get more homes built.
The Labour leader described his rationale as “Alice in Wonderland logic, Micheál in Wonderland logic”.
She said “you tell me that you’ve introduced protections for renters and that these have somehow generated evictions. So which is it?”
She said “I hear that you’re telling members of your own parliamentary party, that you’re getting a wonderful response on the doors in the byelection. But you must know that’s not the case.
“That’s more Alice in Wonderland logic”, TDs are hearing from people “who are desperately hurt, who are in fear, who are getting notices to quit, and have nowhere to go”.
The Taoiseach told you “you can’t spin away” and “pretend nothing is happening in terms of housing supply, because 9,000 social houses were built last year, direct builds again which the State funded.
He highlighted the impact of demographics and an exponentially growing population on housing. But the Government has focused on a “whole range of initiatives that we’ve introduced from social housing costs rent to affordable housing”.
Full list of candidates in both constituencies
Dublin Central
- Janice Boylan – Sinn Féin
- Tony Corrigan – Independent
- Daniel Ennis – Social Democrats
- Mannix Flynn – Independent
- Colm Flood – Independent
- Janet Horner – Green Party
- Gerry Hutch – Independent
- Ray McAdam – Fine Gael
- Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin – People Before Profit-Solidarity
- Ruth O’Dea – Labour Party
- John O’Leary – Independent
- Ian Noel Smyth – Aontú
- Malachy Steenson – Independent
- John Stephens – Fianna Fáil
Galway West
- Néill Bairéad – Independent
- AJ Cahill – The Irish People
- Mike Cubbard – Independent
- Patrick Feeney – Independent
- Sheila Garrity – Independent
- Cillian Keane – Fianna Fáil
- Seán Kyne – Fine Gael
- Mark Lohan – Sinn Féin
- Niall Murphy – Green Party
- Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich – Social Democrats
- Orla Nugent – Aontú
- Helen Ogbu – Labour Party
- John O’Leary – Independent
- Denman Rooke – People Before Profit-Solidarity
- Michael Ryan – Independent
- Noel Thomas – Independent Ireland
- Thomas Welby – Independent
Tuesday recap
Polymarket betting on Dublin Central byelection to be examined
Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris has instructed his officials to do a “deep dive” into the placing of bets on the Dublin Central byelection by accounts engaged in highly suspicious betting behaviour on the gambling platform Polymarket.
An Irish Times investigation published on Monday found that over the course of a week in April, accounts engaged in suspicious betting behaviour made a series of bets on Gerry Hutch, the gangland figure known as ‘The Monk’, to lose in the byelection, which takes place on Friday.
Experts say these betting patterns can indicate illicit behaviour, such as money laundering, market manipulation, or attempts to make a betting market appear more active than it is. There is no suggestion that Hutch or any other candidate is involved in the betting.
On Tuesday, Harris told reporters at the Mansion House in Dublin that he has now instructed his officials to do a “deep dive” into the issue and liaise with other State bodies, including the Department of Justice, the Gambling Regulator and the Central Bank of Ireland.
Read more here.
On the campaign trail with Gerry Hutch
In Belvedere Court, word spreads that Hutch is there and at every doorway along each balcony the routine is the same. The person comes to the door, a smartphone appears and a selfie is taken.
“If I got a vote for every selfie, I’d win on the first count,” Hutch says as he walks along.
At the top of the stairwell, he meets Lisa Doyle, a young woman who tells him all her family are voting Hutch.
As a selfie is taken, she says: “I’m voting for him because we know him and he will look after us.”
Political Correspondent Harry McGee joined the gangland figure for a canvass on Monday evening, during which seemingly endless selfies were taken, including with mourners attending a funeral.
Read in full here.
Sinn Féin Galway West candidate expresses ‘full solidarity’ with President’s sister
Sinn Féin’s Galway West candidate, Mark Lohan, has said it is “essential” that detained participants of the flotilla bound for Gaza are released “without delay”.
Lohan expressed his “full solidarity” with President Catherine Connolly and her family following the detention of her sister.
Margaret Connolly was one of several Irish people taking part in a flotilla of aid vessels bound for Gaza when they were detained by Israeli forces on Monday.
Lohan, who is running for the President’s former seat, said those involved in the flotilla showed “enormous courage in attempting to break the blockade on Gaza”.
“The Irish Government and the wider international community cannot remain passive in the face of what is happening. Strong and decisive action is needed.
“It is essential that all those detained are protected, treated properly and released without delay,” he said.
People Before Profit’s candidate for the Dublin Central byelection has expressed “serious concern” about the circumstances surrounding the death of Yves Sakila on Friday.
Sakila, a 35-year-old Congolese man who lived in Ireland since 2004, died after he was restrained by security staff on Henry Street.
He had been pursued by security personnel after being suspected of shoplifting.
People Before Profit’s Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin said Sakila’s death raised “serious concern about excessive force” being used.
“Members of the Congolese community in Ireland have expressed their shock and anger over Mr Sakila’s death, and they have demanded an independent and transparent investigation into the events surrounding his death,” he said.
“I want to offer my sympathies to Mr Sakila’s family and friends and I support the calls for an independent investigation into the circumstances of his death.”
Some photos are coming in of Gerry Hutch out on the campaign trail today.
Hutch, who gardaí have previously described in court as the figurehead of the Hutch crime gang involved in the Kinahan-Hutch feud, was running in third place in an Irish Times/TG4 opinion poll earlier this month.
The poll on first preference votes for Dublin Central showed the 62-year-old, who has for years lived mostly in Lanzarote, at 14 per cent.
He was behind Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis (18 per cent) and Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan (21 per cent).
McAdam pledges more CCTV in Dublin Central to fight litter
Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam says he will work to expand CCTV cameras if elected after Friday’s Dublin Central byelection.
Cameras to deter illegal dumping have been installed at Belvedere Place, Sherrard Street and Summer Street since last August. The areas had been particularly prone to illegal dumping and excessive litter.
McAdam believes the scheme should be expanded to include bottle and textile banks to tackle litter “across Dublin Central”.
“That’s what I’ll do if elected to Dáil Éireann,” he said in a post on X.
On a recent canvass, McAdam told The Irish Times the constituency “needs a Government voice”.
“I ask people to bear in mind, what can a fourth Opposition TD do, that the other three Opposition TDs can’t do?” he said.
Why does Dublin Central have a low voter turnout?
McDonald: Galway West byelection a chance to send ‘loud message’
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald says Friday’s byelection in Galway is an opportunity to send Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael a “loud message” that “enough is enough”.
“It’s time for action to cut the cost of living and make life affordable,” she said in a post on X.
The findings of an Irish Times/TG4 opinion poll earlier this month on first-preference votes showed Sinn Féin’s candidate in Galway West, Mark Lohan, at 7 per cent.
Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne was leading at 17 per cent. He was followed by Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas (16 per cent) and Labour’s Helen Ogbu (12 per cent).
‘A lot of hurt’ in RTÉ after latest pay controversy, Minister says
In advance of seeking Cabinet approval for new legislation that would bring RTÉ under the remit of the Comptroller and Auditor General, Minister for Media Patrick O’Donovan said there cannot be a “relationship built on revelation” with the broadcaster.
“We’ve been down this road before, and here we are again,” he said, after RTÉ last week confirmed that Derek Mooney’s pay was incorrectly listed.
RTÉ said it had decided to revise its top 10 highest-earning presenters to include Derek Mooney, who is also a producer, after it “reconsidered what constitutes a presenter”.
“There is a lot of hurt in the organisation because people thought this is the end of it, and clearly it is not,” O’Donovan said.
Also speaking ahead of a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning, Tánaiste Simon Harris said there appeared to be a “bit of an upstairs-downstairs situation going on in RTÉ, that certain producers can be over here, and that’s not fair”.
“So, there’s a fairness issue here, there’s a transparency issue here, and then there’s just an accuracy issue here, fairness, transparency, and accuracy. And we need all three of them to ensure we don’t have Groundhog Day.” – PA
As the byelection campaigns enter their final days, the Government is to move today to have RTÉ’s finances audited by the State’s spending watchdog.
It will mean the Comptroller and Auditor General will assume responsibility for auditing RTÉ’s account. Until now, the broadcaster has had its accounts privately audited.
The move will also allow the office to carry out value-for-money examinations to ensure that the broadcaster is making best use of taxpayers’ money.
Under the new arrangement, the Dáil’s public spending watchdog, the Public Accounts Committee, will have the power to hold public meetings examining RTÉ’s accounts and spending.
Read more here.
Dissatisfaction with Government in Galway West
Like Dublin Central, there is an anti-Government mood on the ground in Galway West.
In an Irish Times/TG4 opinion poll in the constituency earlier this month, just 20 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the Government’s handling of the fuel crisis, while two-thirds of voters (67 per cent) said they were dissatisfied.
More than a third (35 per cent) of respondents said they were impacted by Galway’s housing shortage.
Among them, 26 per cent said rents were too high, 23 per cent pointed to a lack of rental accommodation and 15 per cent said there was a lack of housing to buy.
Asked about the most important issue for Galway for them, the top choice among those polled was “roads”, including the plans for a bypass for the city, on 27 per cent, followed by housing (26 per cent), the cost of living (11 per cent) and public transport (8 per cent).
Strong appetite for change in Dublin Central
Polling for The Irish Times and TG4 earlier this month showed a strong appetite for change in the Dublin Central constituency.
Over half of all respondents (53 per cent) said they felt it was time for “radical change” in the way the country is run, while a further 39 per cent were in favour of “moderate change”.
There was dissatisfaction with the Government, with almost three-quarters of voters (72 per cent) saying they were dissatisfied with the handling of the fuel crisis.
The cost of living was the most important issue for the constituency, cited by a third (33 per cent). This was followed by house prices (24 per cent), immigration (12 per cent) and the cost of renting (11 per cent).
According to the same poll by Ipsos B&A, Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan was leading the race with 21 per cent of first-preference votes.
She was followed closely by Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis (18 per cent) and veteran criminal Gerry Hutch (14 per cent), who is running as an Independent candidate.
Kyne holds the slimmest of leads in Galway West
Political Correspondent Harry McGee joined Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne on a canvass to Inis Oírr last week.
Kyne holds the slimmest of leads over Independent Ireland rival Noel Thomas in the Galway West byelection campaign, according to an Irish Times/TG4 opinion poll in the constituency earlier this month.
The findings of the poll on first-preference votes show Kyne at 17 per cent followed by Thomas on 16 per cent and Labour’s Helen Ogbu on 12 per cent.
Frustrations in Dublin Central Sinn Féin heartland
Political Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones was out and about with Sinn Féin and Fine Gael canvassers last week, and recalled the adage from former taoiseach and Dublin Central TD Bertie Ahern who used to tell his charges it was best to campaign with the sun on your back.
The teams from Sinn Féin and Fine Gael that fanned out across different parts of the constituency midweek enjoyed a bit of fine weather – although both had to contend with squalling rain and cold winds.
In Cabra, more recent words from Ahern were dominating headlines after the former taoiseach’s comments on immigration were covertly recorded during a canvass by Fianna Fáil.
The Irish Times’ polling shows that immigration is the third-most important issue for voters in Dublin Central, cited by 12 per cent of voters in the constituency.
The cost of living (33 per cent) and house prices (24 per cent) far eclipse immigration as a concern. However, it does outscore health, the economy, and law and order in voter concerns.
Four things to watch in last few days of campaigning
Candidates and their parties are in their final days of campaigning in the Dublin Central and Galway West byelections.
With crowded fields of candidates in both constituencies and transfers certain to be decisive, every preference is precious, writes Political Editor Pat Leahy.
The margins between success and failure could be wafer thin, so expect a frantic final few days on the ground. Here is what to watch out for.
Time to prioritise
Parties are deciding where to concentrate their energies. Fine Gael will prioritise the campaign in Galway where its candidate Seán Kyne is in the hunt for the seat. Party leader and Tánaiste Simon Harris plans to be there on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
It would be surprising if Sinn Féin did not make the opposite judgment: to concentrate its attention on Dublin Central where Janice Boylan led last week’s poll but will face a stiff challenge for the seat from the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis.
Getting out the vote
Turnout tends to be lower in byelections than at general elections, which only increases the importance of a party getting out its supporters to turn up on the day.
All parties will have a get-out-the-vote operation on polling day, but it is vital for Sinn Féin if it is to stand a chance of winning in Dublin West.
Beg, borrow, steal transfers
Nobody is getting elected on the first count: these elections will be decided by the transfers between candidates. These are unpredictable but will be influenced by factors such as geography, ideology, support/opposition to the Government, as well as candidates’ performance in the campaign.
Manage expectations
Though the byelections won’t change the balance of power in the Dáil, they have a political importance beyond that measurement partly because they dominate the political agenda for a few weeks.
Wins for the Social Democrats and/or Independent Ireland would confirm them as coming forces.
