Tempers have eased and tensions have diminished a bit in Fianna Fáil this week as the party awaits a report on its disastrous presidential election campaign.
In a move that surprised absolutely nobody, the deadline for the report’s delivery was extended beyond its original date last Wednesday.
TDs and Senators were told by Dublin Bay North TD Tom Brabazon, one of the members of the group compiling the report, that the work required to compile the report was ongoing but would not be completed until next month.
Though some TDs were annoyed by the delay, the move was more or less universally expected in advance of the parliamentary party’s meeting. What else happened?
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Taoiseach and party leader Micheál Martin indicated that he would mount a muscular defence if there is any challenge to his leadership. And the rebels within the party decided to keep their powder dry.
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Nothing was resolved and nothing was agreed – except that, implicitly, everyone agreed that now is not yet the time for resolution.
“They’re holding off,” said one Minister about the rebels in the anti-Martin faction.
“Topic adjourned for now,” says another source.
So what actually is the state of play now within the party – and what is the future for Martin’s leadership?
Conversations with a number of Fianna Fáil insiders this week – all of whom were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive issues – suggest that for now, the future is being seen through the prism of the presidential election report.
But even beyond that, issues about Martin’s future, how the party is run and what it can achieve in Government, will continue.
While the report is independent of the leadership, there are already mutterings about a whitewash.
“I mean, what do they expect?” asks one staffer rhetorically.
Perhaps rather too much.
Dissidents hope that the report will supply them with a new killer fact that would fatally damage Martin’s leadership; few share this expectation, though there are concerns that revelations about the cost of the campaign will cause trouble for Martin. That would certainly be seized on by his opponents.
There may be no killer fact, but the facts as they are known are bad enough. The big question is why did Martin think that the party’s presidential candidate, Jim Gavin, the former Dublin GAA football manager and retired military officer who had no track record of campaigning or apparent media skills, would be a good candidate, who could catch the public imagination?
Even before his spectacular implosion in the middle of the presidential race – over his failure to repay overpaid rent to a former tenant dating back more than a decade – it was clear that Gavin’s campaign was not clicking.
Martin can fairly plead ignorance on the controversy over Gavin’s former tenant, but he will have a tougher time explaining the misjudgment that led to Gavin’s selection in the first place.
At this point it would be hard to underplay the damage that the presidential debacle has caused to Martin, not just with his TDs, but with the party membership, always a great reservoir of support for the leader. Ask any TD and the answer is the same: there’s a lot of anger in the party about it.
How is all this playing out in the parliamentary party – or more specifically, among the party’s 48 TDs, who are the only ones who will have a vote if a motion of no-confidence is put down?
There was contrived outrage last week when news of a list of dissidents emerged. Hardened politicians professed themselves shocked and outraged that such a thing would be contemplated, though everyone who watches politics – inside and out – has a list, even if it’s only in their head.
There are many people keeping their thoughts on the matter to themselves, at least publicly. But several people who are tracking the issue closely agree with the summary that the 48 TDs are divided into three groups that are not greatly dissimilar in size: those who would vote against Martin if offered the opportunity, those who would support him and those whose intentions are either unknown or undecided.
If that is true, it is the final group that will be decisive in any vote.
The rebels, which is one of the names by which their colleagues are now referring to them, have three components. There are those, such as Cork East TD James O’Connor, Cork North-Central TD Padraig O’Sullivan, Dublin South-West TD John Lahart and Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness, who have publicly questioned Martin’s future.
Then there are others who have been more loosely associated with the group, including Louth TD Erin McGreehan, Carlow-Kilkenny TD Peter “Chap” Cleere, Cork South-Central TD Seamus McGrath and Senator Anne Rabbitte. Some of them are quite chagrined at their inclusion, though Leinster House gossip does not contradict the reports.
And then there are those who nurse historic grievances against the party leader. They will not be out in the media calling for him to go. But they will take their opportunity if the occasion arises.
The loyalists include most – but certainly not all – of the 18 Ministers, some of the middle ground and some of the older TDs who value the party’s traditional code of loyalty to the leader.
And then there’s the final group – many of them new, or younger TDs, who are especially concerned about the housing crisis, being of the generation most severely affected: TDs such as Kildare North TD Naoise Ó Cearúil, Tipperary North TD Ryan O’Meara, Dublin Mid-West TD Shane Moynihan, Galway East TD Albert Dolan, Roscommon-Galway TD Martin Daly, Meath West TD Aisling Dempsey and Dublin South Central TD Catherine Ardagh are new to the Dáil but have impressed colleagues. They will make up their own minds.
“The younger generation ... they’re less patient,” says one veteran. “They need things done, and things are not being done.”
In a recent article in The Irish Times, one of their number, the Wexford-Wicklow TD Malcolm Byrne, wrote: “I am not part of any gang seeking to start a heave”.
However, he did express frustration at the Government’s inability to make progress on a series of issues.
Byrne is the only Fianna Fáil TD who has agreed to be quoted for this article.
“The presidential election will soon be a footnote in history,” he says.
“The bigger issue is about ensuring delivery on housing, infrastructure, disability services, childcare, et cetera. While we have seen some progress in certain areas, the pace of change has not been radical or urgent enough.
“That view is held among many of my colleagues. The Taoiseach has been in listening mode but he needs to take charge and ensure that the entire State is committed to taking effective action.”
That is where Martin’s future will be decided – among those who feel no instinctive disloyalty, but want to see the Government make progress on the issues their constituents are giving them hell over.
They are part of what they regard as a great organisation. But they are also sole traders, who will make decisions about the leader with their own interests in mind: what gives me the best chance of keeping my seat?
There is one further element in the mix: few of Martin’s TDs believe that he will fight another general election. If that is correct (and it almost certainly is), then the question becomes not if Martin goes – but when he goes.
What then?
Two things have made Jim O’Callaghan, Minister for Justice and Dublin Bay South TD, the current favourite to succeed Martin – the sense he is getting things done in his department and the travails of his main rival, Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers, the party’s deputy leader, badly tainted by the presidential debacle. He was the party’s director of elections for the presidential campaign.
But O’Callaghan shows no signs of wanting to push Martin out. He has not been fomenting unrest; indeed, he is said to regard it all as premature.
But, as Martin’s loyalists have noted, neither has O’Callaghan been going out of his way to support his leader.
“Jim could stop all this,” says one ally. “He hasn’t.”
“Right now, Jim would be a very inexperienced Taoiseach, and he knows that,” says one fellow Minister.
“But Micheál’s chips have been cashed in as a result of Jim Gavin. He can’t afford to drop any more balls. He is vulnerable. There’s no doubt.”
