Fianna Fáil figures believe Taoiseach Micheál Martin is facing a “more serious” risk of a challenge to his leadership than on previous occasions in the wake of the party’s presidential election debacle.
Sources across the party, from backbenchers to Ministers, say Mr Martin will have to negotiate an ongoing series of issues against the backdrop of heightened risk of a heave.
There is a belief among some at a senior level – although not universal – that Mr Martin’s enemies in the parliamentary party may have the 12 votes necessary to put down a motion of no confidence in the leader, but not necessarily to win it thereafter.
The timing of such a move, if it comes, may depend on a bad run of polling, or a range of other issues which could destabilise the Taoiseach further. “I think it is more serious than previous attempts,” said one Minister.
READ MORE
Sources point especially to the planned publication of a review of the presidential candidate selection, due to be published on November 12th.
“The difficulty is this report,” said one Minister, outlining that if it was delayed or is seen to shirk a critical analysis of the leadership’s decision-making, it could provide a new opportunity for his critics. “If the report is seen in any way to be weak or self-serving, he’s in trouble.”
Similarly, the emergence of the cost of Jim Gavin’s scrapped presidential campaign could prove problematic. Unhappiness within the parliamentary party over the budget, as well as anger in the grassroots, also must be addressed.
Rebels argue that a majority of the Fianna Fáil party want Mr Martin “gone, but people want to wait for the right time”. But Ministers believe that the absence of a declared challenger helps the Taoiseach.
Names of those considered “rebels”, circulating on Tuesday, included those who have publicly aired concerns about the presidential election or discussed the leadership in recent days, including James O’Connor, John McGuinness, John Lahart and Senator Anne Rabbitte. Colleagues said Wicklow-Wexford’s Malcolm Byrne was perhaps not a full rebel, but more of a “loose horse”, in the eyes of one Minister. Several other TDs are being linked as potentially supporting a no-confidence motion, including a group of veterans also seen as disgruntled but not necessarily “in the plotters’ camp”.
Senior allies of Mr Martin reject the contention that the group of disaffected TDs has drawn new support from the middle ground of the party. One senior Minister said they detected no “shift in the middle ground – the rump is just louder”. A second Minister insisted there was “no panic” in Mr Martin’s camp.
Mr Martin met backbenchers, including Mr Byrne and Mr O’Connor, on Tuesday as part of an ongoing series of talks with TDs on policy. Sources indicated that the leadership was not discussed in substance but that Mr Martin was told that delivery on key areas such as housing was key to alleviating pressure on his TDs which is causing them significant frustration.
On Tuesday, Mr Byrne said many of the party’s backbenchers were frustrated at Mr Martin’s leadership and the slow pace of delivery on issues such as housing.
Ministers pointed out that public criticism of Mr Martin following an intervention from Mr Lahart on Sunday had not been too vocal. One veteran backbencher said the names circulated as rebels were those he would expect and that there were always “rumblings” – but warned that the bloc of 29 parliamentary party members could form the spine of a vote against Mr Martin.
“If it came to a shoot-out, it could be tighter than you think,” this TD added – while another Minister counselled that Mr Martin would be best advised to avoid such a motion.
