On paper, Jim Gavin could have been an election-winning candidate for Fianna Fáil.
He had name recognition and popularity – in the capital at least – as the multi All-Ireland-winning Dubs football boss.
Aside from the appeal of his GAA connection, he had a long record of public service in the Defence Forces among several other roles. In theory, he could have won votes beyond Fianna Fáil’s core support base.
How is it, then, that the Gavin campaign so spectacularly imploded, leaving Fianna Fáil severely bruised and raising renewed questions over how long Taoiseach Micheál Martin will continue to lead the party?
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As the election approached, veterans such as former taoiseach Bertie Ahern and ex-minister Mary Hanafin were knocking on the door to run for Fianna Fáil. Even Bob Geldof later said he would have “walked it” had he received the backing of Martin.
However, political newcomer Gavin was identified as a possible candidate over the summer.
During the campaign, Gavin told The Irish Times how he met Martin and Fianna Fáil deputy leader Jack Chambers and how “their vision of the presidency was aligned with mine”.
He described himself as an “Irish republican”, said “serving the State” was “what motivates me” and that “ultimately I believe that I can make a difference”.
It was not to be.
After their meetings, Martin and Chambers were evidently impressed and they pushed for Gavin to become Fianna Fáil’s face on the ballot paper.
Critics in the party later accused the leadership of pressurising TDs and Senators to back Gavin over MEP Billy Kelleher, a party stalwart who went up against him in an internal contest to be the candidate.
Gavin emerged victorious in September – though by a closer margin than many expected – and hit the election trail.
The inexperienced politician appeared nervous in the first televised debate. Then there was a series of online gaffes by his campaign, among them the use of drone footage shot without appropriate permission, and uniformed Defence Forces personnel appearing in the former Air Corps officer’s social media videos, all of which were taken down.
[ Timeline of an ill-fated campaign Opens in new window ]
Then, on October 4th, the Irish Independent reported on an allegation that a former tenant of Gavin’s – later revealed to be Sunday World journalist Niall Donald – mistakenly overpaid €3,300 in rent for an apartment the candidate previously owned and was never paid back.
Gavin took part in a debate on RTÉ on October 5th and said he was “looking into” the matter.
That night he withdrew from the race with a statement saying he had “made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character”. He later repaid his former tenant.
Gavin’s name would remain on the ballot paper.
There was personal sympathy among many in Fianna Fáil for their ill-fated candidate and the difficult time that transpired for him and his family during a brief campaign.
However, the party rapidly became consumed by turmoil over what had happened. Chambers and Martin defended their roles in Gavin’s selection and the vetting that had taken place. During a marathon parliamentary party meeting Martin apologised and acknowledged the “hurt and shock” of Fianna Fáil members.
An ongoing review of the party’s botched presidential bid is expected to deliver findings next month.
Veteran Fianna Fáil TD Seán Fleming – who reviewed the party’s underwhelming 2020 election – was blunt in his assessment this time around, saying the election “blew up in our face”.
One thing he believed went wrong was that “Fianna Fáil didn’t pick one of our own”.
However, Fleming also highlighted good local, European and general election results, saying Fianna Fáil had just “one bad disaster amongst the lot of them”.
Former TD Éamon Ó Cuív was more downbeat. He criticised the uncertainty over whether Fianna Fáil would contest the election saying an earlier decision would have allowed time for a candidate to be “stress-tested”, as “happened in the case of Catherine Connolly”.
After Gavin ended his campaign, Martin and other senior Fianna Fáil figures confirmed their support for Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys. Ó Cuív believed this was a mistake and “basically cements” the Opposition’s “FFG” jibe thrown at Fianna Fáil in recent years.
He opposed entering Coalition with Fine Gael in 2020, predicting “we would wind up with two big parties in the future but that one of them wouldn’t be Fianna Fáil.”
Ó Cuív contended that senior figures backing Humphreys “would seem to bring us much nearer to that disappointing prognosis”.
Dublin MEP Barry Andrews did not agree, saying it was an “exaggeration to suggest it might be the beginning of the end of Fianna Fáil”.
He lamented the lack of hustings in the party’s presidential nominations process, saying it would have allowed members to “properly cross-examine the candidates”. He said what happened was “damaging” but pointed to recent electoral successes – Fianna Fáil “shouldn’t panic”.
Hanafin admitted disappointment at not getting into the race herself, and said: “I certainly would have given it a good shot.”
She did not believe that Gavin, while “an exceptional man at what he did”, was the right candidate, she said, adding: “You wouldn’t ask me to be the manager of the Dublin football team.”
While there was disappointment and anger in Fianna Fáil, there appeared to be no imminent threat to Martin’s leadership.
Ó Cuív and Hanafin believed his days at the helm were numbered, despite his stated intention to lead the party into the next general election.
Hanafin said Martin was “a very good Taoiseach” and she expected him to stay in office during Ireland’s EU presidency in 2026 but added: “I don’t actually see him getting to the end of 2027.″
As for his possible successor, Hanafin said she had “a lot of time for Jim O’Callaghan”.
After Gavin’s election exit, O’Callaghan said he did not believe Martin was badly damaged, and while aspiring to be party leader, it was “not an immediate concern for me”.
Andrews said the Taoiseach still had “a lot of credit in the bank” within Fianna Fáil, was “a huge electoral asset” and added: “I still think Micheál will lead us into the next general election.”
