Story of the Week
The presidential election is entering its final days and the main takeaway from last week is undoubtedly that massive lead left-wing independent TD Catherine Connolly appears to have built up over rival Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael.
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll last Thursday has Connolly at 38 per cent, almost double Humphreys’ support level of 20 per cent. Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin, who has ended his campaign but is still on the ballot paper, was on 5 per cent.
The undecideds stood at 18 per cent, which is a significant proportion of voters, but even if Humphreys won the backing of all of the don’t knows, which would be unlikely to happen, she would only match Connolly’s support level.
The results of the poll suggest a resounding victory by Connolly in Friday’s election.
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However, there are still a few days to go and presidential elections have proved volatile in the past, with frontrunners falling at the last hurdle, so it may not be all over yet (even if it may appear to be).
Humphreys is not throwing in the towel, saying she was: “long enough in politics to know the real poll is the day of the election”.
Regardless, the former Fine Gael minister and her party will be scrambling to salvage her campaign over the coming days and they face an uphill battle in doing so.
Connolly, meanwhile, reacted saying: “I don’t think polls win elections” and “I’ll be canvassing every day until next Thursday”.
She has indicated she will not be changing her strategy, but why would she, given her apparent commanding lead?
Last week saw more broadcast debates.
Both candidates faced tough questioning on the Morning Ireland debate on Friday.
Humphreys was challenged again on the level of help she offered the family of hit and run victim Shane O’Farrell while she was a TD. His mother Lucia O’Farrell has accused her of not supporting them in their campaign for a public inquiry.
The Fine Gael candidate said she spoke to Lucia and made representations on her behalf to ministers. Humphreys also said: “I’m sorry if it wasn’t enough, anybody that came through my constituency office, I did my best for them. There are many times where I have helped people.”
Connolly meanwhile was asked about her 2018 “fact-finding” trip to war-torn Syria while dictator Bashar al-Assad was in power. The Irish Times reported on Friday that Connolly and other members of an Irish delegation were pictured in the company of Saed Abd al-Aal, who led a pro-Assad armed group responsible for killing and starvation in a refugee camp in Yarmouk.
Connolly said during the debate she was not aware of who he was or what he had done. “You have no control when you go to a country like that as to who will come into your presence or not. That’s no endorsement of the regime, I’m on record for condemning the regime.”
You can follow our live coverage of the campaign today here.
Bust Up
There has been some division within the Labour Party over its decision to back Catherine Connolly in the presidential election. Former leader Alan Kelly has been particularly vocal in raising questions about Labour’s decision to throw its weight behind Connolly’s campaign.
He has said he will vote for Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys “by default”. As Jack Horgan-Jones reported last Thursday the issue was raised at a private party meeting where some of Kelly’s colleagues criticised him over his interjections in the presidential campaign.
At the weekly meeting of the Labour parliamentary party, sources said party leader Ivana Bacik raised the matter during her leader’s report, which opened proceedings. Following this, it is believed several colleagues were critical of Mr Kelly. Unsurprisingly, Tipperary North TD Kelly offered a “robust defence” of himself, emphasising his loyalty to the party and his past electoral successes. There have been dissenting voices in the Green Party as well including former TD Brian Leddin who resigned from the party due to its decision to support Connolly.
Banana Skin
The thorny issue of the Occupied Territories Bill was raised in the Dáil last week. Political Editor Pat Leahy has detailed how the Government is said to be increasingly unlikely to include trade in services in the scope of its own version of the legislation which is intended to ban trade in goods with companies operating from the Palestinian territories occupied by Israel.
Speaking in the Dáil last Tuesday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said, “the feedback I’m getting, it’s not just implementable”. The inclusion of services has been a key demand of the Opposition ever since the original legislation was proposed by Independent Senator Frances Black in 2018 and leaving it out now will be criticised as a significant watering down of the Bill. On Thursday Martin was telling the Dáil no decision has been made on whether to include services in the legislation.
But he told Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns that, “being honest”, goods could be traced “fairly easily through documentation, certificates of origin and physical supply chains. Services are a much different kettle of fish”. Cairns criticised his comments that the feedback was that the legislation was not “implementable” saying that meant “a huge component of trade between Ireland and the illegal settlements will continue if this Bill is ever enacted. We need to see action and we need to see accountability”. Even leaving aside how the Opposition might react to the final version of the Bill, it could bring headaches for the Government in other ways. As Leahy reported earlier this month, a group of United States congressional representatives wrote to the Taoiseach to warn of damage to Irish-US relations if the Government proceeds with the Bill.
Internal Government deliberations on the legislation are continuing with the input of the attorney general. It is likely to be one of the trickier pieces of legislation for the Coalition in the months ahead.
Winners and Losers
The Connolly campaign’s social media team appears to be all-conquering when it comes to the online battle for the Áras. They are this week’s winners. It was a slick operation even before the famous keepy-uppy video emerged in recent weeks and they show no signs of slacking as the campaign enters its closing days.
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll suggests a good chunk of the electorate feel they’re losing out in this presidential election amid the small field of candidates on the ballot paper. Almost half of voters – 49 per cent – said they “don’t feel represented by any of the candidates”.
The Big Read
In a piece on Saturday, Ellen Coyne interviews Heather Humphreys and they discuss a range of issues including a Monaghan woman on getting Jarlath Burns’s support, questioning about her husband’s past Orange Order ties, criticism of her by Lucia O’Farrell, and her hopes of being a unifying president.
Hear Here
On Thursday’s Election Daily podcast Political Editor Pat Leahy joined Hugh Linehan to discuss the significance of Catherine Connolly’s lead in the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll and why Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin’s exit from the race has not helped Heather Humphreys.
Election Daily: Is it all over bar the shouting for Heather Humphreys?
With Catherine Connolly showing an unprecedented lead for a presidential candidate one week out from polling day, could her campaign only be derailed by something extraordinary at this stage?
