Mairead McGuinness has been known to say, according to her allies, that the best thing to ever happen to her was failing to get the Fine Gael nomination for the presidential race in 2011.
The party’s candidate, Gay Mitchell, had a dismal outing, winning just 6.4 per cent of the vote, almost 30 points lower than the party’s general election result earlier that year.
McGuinness polled strongly in party research, but Mitchell won through an internal contest, before being blown off the pitch.
“The timing is better now,” says an ally of McGuinness.
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Since then, the Louth native has been re-elected twice as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP), in 2014 and 2019, serving as vice-president of the European Parliament.
After the defenestration of Phil Hogan following the controversy over Golfgate and his movements during Covid quarantine rules, she served for four years as his successor as Ireland’s European commissioner.
Now, she is the early front-runner for the 2025 race for the Áras, coming through the Fine Gael selection process unopposed.
McGuinness is the front-runner in today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll at 14 per cent, followed by Independent TD Catherine Connolly on 9 per cent and Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald on 8 per cent.
[ Battle for the Áras gets under wayOpens in new window ]
Recent presidential elections have a political blood sport quality to them; history, character and personality are on the line. Despite her track record, as this race shifts gears, Brussels veterans who also know Irish politics say she must prepare for an entirely different type of campaigning.
“Domestic politicians are tested every day of the week,” says one. When it comes to a contest like the presidency, “she’s never been tested”.
Media nous and Brussels skills
McGuinness came to public prominence as a journalist, firstly as a researcher on the Late Late Show, then in the farming media, and as an RTÉ presenter. A former media colleague remembers her with high regard as genial, fair and disciplined.
“If you f**ked up, she was very even-tempered about it,” they say, before adding: “If you continued messing up, you’d be dealt with.”
Others who have worked with her in politics mirror this, describing her as someone who is firm but fair, diligent, values loyalty, “good fun” and straightforward.
“No plamásing shite talk with her – she is very straight and lands her points carefully,” said one.
She won an MEP seat in Ireland East in 2004, but failed to take a Dáil seat in Louth in 2007. She is married to a sheep farmer, so agriculture and family remain close to her heart, according to those who know her.
While well respected within Fine Gael, one senior party figure believes her relatively late entry into politics, combined with her station outside national politics, leaves her somewhat apart from the cultural and power centre of the party.
Without coming up through the party, for some she was “someone who nobody ever got to know”, says this person.
Another source is less charitable: “If ever there was a sole trader, this is one.”
Multiple sources in Brussels describe her as a consummate operator of the levers of EU politics.
“She’s a superb networker, a superb communicator, a superb insider,” says one, describing her ability to cultivate relationships within the European Peoples’ Party, the political grouping of which Fine Gael is a member, and which formed her power base within the parliament.
“She’s very effective on political networking – never misses an event, knows wide circles of people.”
Frances Fitzgerald, the former tánaiste and Fine Gael MEP who was also mooted as a presidential candidate, assesses the differences between EU and domestic politics.
[ The presidency is not a Rose of Tralee contest for over-35sOpens in new window ]
“[Brussels] is all about connecting, it is about consensus building, bringing diverse views and opinions together, reaching beyond the divide,” she says – a very “civilised” politics, rarely personal, where language and compromise are important.
Those close to McGuinness dispute the idea that Brussels politics is more genteel than its Irish equivalent, but it is hard to argue that they are the same beast.
“It does not have the rough and tumble of Irish politics, it does not exist there,” says Fitzgerald.
The key question will be whether McGuinness’s Brussels skills translate to the presidential race.
‘The parliament whisperer’
A wellspring of ambition has driven McGuinness’s trajectory, according to those who have observed her closely: “She’s always looking for the next role – the next thing.”
McGuinness keeps her cards close to her chest, says a Fine Gael source, “but she makes moves at key points”.
Asked about this, a person who has worked closely with McGuinness asks: “If you don’t back yourself, who the hell is going to back you?”
She let it be known that she wanted the commissioner’s job when Hogan resigned, and pitched for a second term when the appointment was Fianna Fáil’s to make under the terms of the agreement underpinning the 2020-2024 coalition.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen heavily hinted that she would be in line for a more senior post if renominated, but the Government was unmoved.
Her record in Brussels will come in for close examination – with particular scrutiny on high-profile issues or relationships rather than legislative slog work. Among these red-button issues will be her political alignment with von der Leyen.
McGuinness is seen as someone who was more at home in the European Parliament than inside the Berlaymont where the commission is based. Von der Leyen often dispatched McGuinness to quell unrest in the parliament, particularly on agriculture policy.
“She would have been the parliament whisperer,” one official says.
While this is a privileged position within the Brussels firmament, her proximity to von der Leyen may not be an electoral asset. The commission president’s position on Gaza, in particular, is miles from where many Irish voters are.
Allies say McGuinness found the Gaza assault “abhorrent” from the outset, and argue it would be her approach to have difficult conversations privately, “not from soap boxes”.
She is also likely to face scrutiny over votes in the parliament. This will include voting against a 2019 resolution on search and rescue missions in the Mediterranean, citing concerns over information sharing with people smugglers. But the vote was welcomed by far-right and anti-immigration MEPs, and Fine Gael’s position drew a chorus of criticism.
A leaked report she authored that year on increasing dialogue between religious organisations and MEPs was criticised by some who said it would increase the influence of religious groups on the parliament. The European Parliament Platform for Secularism in Politics expressed “deep concerns” about it at the time.
McGuinness said then it would not offer extra lobbying strength to individual groups, arguing: “If anything, it is about bringing Europe closer to the people.”
These issues are classic examples of how actions in Brussels can become a vulnerability when refracted through the prism of domestic politics. The same can be said for her claiming €800,000 in office expenses over 20 years while using family property as her constituency office.
What sort of president would she be?
McGuinness is yet to sketch out how she sees the presidency and she has not undertaken a round of media interviews or doorsteps, something that Fine Gael sources say should not be expected for several weeks.
This strategy is risk averse, but not without risk. Some believe it is dangerous, may create the impression of arrogance and could rebound on her.
Party sources say the period between now and the campaign launch in September will be used to prepare and to engage with voters. The problem, of course, is that in a single national constituency, the ground war of meeting and greeting is less important than the highly transmissible air war through the media. The risk of damage to a front-runner is minimised, but there is an opportunity cost.
The timing of the Fine Gael nomination left space for an internal contest that did not materialise, much to the regret of some within the party (although others speculate whether the path was cleared for McGuinness).
Former Fine Gael strategist Frank Flannery argues that an “acrimonious contest” would have been negative for the party, however, so the absence of one can neither be seen as a win or a loss.
“You take it the way you get it,” he says.
Those who know her expect her to have a respectful attitude towards the office, particularly regarding the relationship between the Áras and Government Buildings, something that incumbent Michael D Higgins is seen as having pushed the boundaries of.
“She will be a very safe pair of hands for the Government because she won’t step across the line,” says one observer who seems unconvinced by McGuinness so far.
“She is the establishment’s candidate.”
If that perception becomes established, it could be a hindrance, especially for those looking for a Higgins-like presidency.
Flannery, however, argues that the qualities of a president are particular. Citing research he did in 2011, the last time McGuinness sought the job, he says voters wanted a combination of the virtues of the two previous holders of the office, Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese – most neatly expressed as someone they could be proud of – “proud of what they did for Ireland, and felt them friendly and accessible”.
The challenge, says another Fine Gael source, will be tapping into that feeling.
“She has an intellectual ability to do the connecting – the challenge will be to do the emotional connecting, to show she has that warmth.”
