Story of the Week
Last weekend’s US bombing of Iran set in motion yet another hectic week of president Donald Trump’s second term in office.
Trump has insisted there has been “total obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear sites.
However, his administration was furious later in the week at media reports based on a leaked preliminary intelligence assessment that suggested Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme may only have been delayed by a matter of months by the strikes.
Trump, meanwhile, claimed the strikes “ended” the war between Israel and Iran, saying: “If we didn’t take [out the nuclear facilities], they would be fighting right now.”
Before the leaked assessment Trump had announced a ceasefire between the two countries, though also expressed his frustration at early violations of it, saying that Iran and Israel “have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they’re doing”.
Those remarks came as he departed for a Nato summit in the Netherlands, where Nato secretary general Mark Rutte perhaps won the accolade of most cringeworthy moment of the year.
Referring to Trump’s use of a swear word in relation to Israel and Iran, Rutte said: “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language.”
The summit saw Trump secure a win with the pledge by members of the alliance to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of gross domestic product, after his claims for years that European countries were not pulling their weight in this regard.
Iran later disputed a claim made by Trump at the Nato summit that nuclear talks would resume next week and that the two sides “may” sign an agreement.
Aside from all that, in an update on his “liberation day” tariffs Trump said on Thursday that the US and China had signed a trade deal, though he provided no details on what it contained.
In Brussels, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that the European Union is preparing for the possibility that it may not be able to come to a “satisfactory agreement” with the US in ongoing tariff negotiations.
Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Simon Harris has been warning this week that time is ticking on getting a deal with the US, with Trump’s temporary reduction of tariffs on the EU due to run out in less than two weeks.
But even this deadline is uncertain, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt telling reporters on Thursday: “Perhaps it could be extended, but that’s a decision for the president to make.”
Another quiet week in Trumpland so.
Bust-up
There was a heated Dáil clash between Fine Gael leader Simon Harris and Sinn Féin TD Pearse Doherty on Thursday over the Government’s plans for a revamp of the historic GPO complex on O’Connell Street. The revamp is to include cultural, retail and office elements. The GPO was of course one of the main locations of fighting during the 1916 Rising.
Mr Doherty suggested the public was “outraged by the Government’s plan to turn the GPO into mainly shopping units and offices”. He asked: “What have Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil got against the heroic men and women of 1916?” He said: “What will we have? Abrakebabra and Starbucks, is it?” Doherty said the GPO was where the 1916 rebels “defended the Republic”.
Harris hit back, saying: “It is a Republic that your party worked to undermine. They collected the killers of Det Garda Jerry McCabe from the gates of a prison. Do not dare present yourself as a defender of the Republic.” He also said that “there are gardaí in their graves” because of the IRA. Things got shouty as the debate boiled over.
That’s all very well but does any of this affect me?
Are you a student who wants to travel to the US on a J1 visa in future? Be prepared to list all social media usernames or handles for every platform you have used from the last five years on the visa application form for vetting purposes. The US State Department is “committed to protecting our nation and our citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process”, the US embassy in Dublin said in a statement, adding: “A US visa is a privilege, not a right.”
Taoiseach Micheál Martin condemned the new requirements as “excessive” and said that they would cause “fear and anxiety” among young people.
On Wednesday in the Dáil Labour leader Ivana Bacik held up a unflattering meme picture of US vice-president JD Vance, saying that a Norwegian tourist was sent home upon arrival at Newark airport for having the image in his phone. She asked Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan what he could do to “reassure young people here who hope to travel to the US on a J1 visa but are fearful of this treatment?”
His response: “There is very little I can do about the US immigration system.” He described the measures introduced by the US as “regrettable”.
Banana Skin
It is around four months until the presidential election but if you were to look at the field of candidates all you would see is tumbleweed blowing around.
Yes, businessman Peter Casey – who ran unsuccessfully as an Independent in 2018 – has suggested he wants to run, and controversial MMA fighter Conor McGregor has indicated the same.
But candidates need the signatures of 20 Oireachtas members or the backing of four councils to get on the ballot paper - so people going it alone without a party face an uphill battle to enter the race.
Certainly do not expect McGregor on the ballot paper later this year.
None of the big three parties - Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin - have named a candidate.
Fine Gael does seem to be the closest to getting the ball rolling, with nominations opening next month.
Fine Gael MEP Seán Kelly has been mulling over a run in recent months and has been asked about his intentions by reporters this week.
He’s still thinking about it, but did suggest he “could do a lot” as president while stopping short of declaring.
His party colleague Mairead McGuinness has also been tipped as a possible candidate but is yet to confirm her intentions.
Independent Senator Frances Black – whose name has been widely mentioned as a candidate that left-wing parties could get behind - more or less ruled herself out as a candidate during the week.
And on Friday Liveline presenter Joe Duffy – who is today hanging up the mic and retiring after 37 years at RTÉ – poured cold water on suggestions that he might run.
He told RTÉ Radio’s Morning Ireland he “can see the Áras from Claddagh Green”, adding: “I’d say that’s the closest I’d ever get to it.”
He said he had not been asked by anyone to run, adding that he will “not lose the run of myself”.
He said: “There’s some great names having been mentioned so far.”
So why the lack of candidates in the field?
Part of the reason could well be the bruising nature of presidential campaigns, where candidates’ personal records rather than political policies have been the focus of intense scrutiny by the media and rivals.
Kelly said “very fine people” had been “destroyed” during the last two elections, while Black has said the campaigns can be a “bloodbath”.
A presidential run is a risky proposition.
Winners and Losers
Winners: This week it is 33-year-old New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, who stormed to victory in the Democratic Party’s primaries vanquishing former governor Andrew Cuomo. As our US Correspondent Keith Duggan writes, the victory of the “democratic socialist” has terrified the captains of industry and commerce. It remains to be seen if he will take Gracie Mansion – the mayor’s residence - from the incumbent Eric Adams, who is running as an independent in the mayoral election this November.
Losers: House hunters and first-time buyers. First there was the news that the average price of a second-hand home in Dublin has pushed past the €600,000 barrier. Then Savills estate agents warned that homes in Dublin are now beyond the reach of first-time buyers using the Government’s Help-to-Buy scheme. The bottom rung on the property ladder is looking more and more out of reach.
The Big Read
Political Editor Pat Leahy – who has been covering the EU summit in Brussels in recent days – has a piece on how Ireland and Europe must navigate the new world that Trump is creating.
Hear Here
EU watches on as Trump changes the world
Europe Correspondent Jack Power joins Pat Leahy and Jack Horgan-Jones to discuss monumental events in the Middle East.
The podcast also looks at the EU’s struggle to assert influence on the global stage as it headed into a major summit, and finally the Irish Government’s awkward stance on the Occupied Territories Bill.
