The morning after the day before in Washington, and Taoiseach Micheál Martin was basking in the afterglow of receiving the warmest of White House welcomes from president Donald Trump.
The day before the White House visit, there had been all sorts of dire predictions – and genuine trepidation among officials – that the Taoiseach could be subjected to a Volodymyr Zelenskiy-style roasting in the Oval Office.
Instead Trump and vice-president JD Vance proved every bit as enthusiastic for the bowl of shamrock and partook to the full in a long day of encomia to the depth and closeness of the Irish-American relationship.
“I love Ireland,” the president repeatedly gushed. As for the Taoiseach, he was “a very special guy ... very popular”.
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Though inevitably Martin shipped some criticism for nodding along to Trump with such enthusiasm, the day was clearly a success for Irish diplomacy. We know what it looks like when an Oval Office meeting is not a success.
But Thursday quickly demonstrated what Trump – in between all the gushing about Ireland and its Taoiseach – jad also made plain in the Oval Office on Wednesday: he is gunning for a trade war with the EU.
The president’s early-morning post on his social media network Truth Social, in which he threatened to impose 200 per cent tariffs on “all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU-represented countries” was in response the EU’s announcement on Wednesday (as Martin prepared for his Oval Office meeting) that it would hit some US products, including whiskey with tariffs as retaliation for tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US that came into force on Wednesday. We are gone beyond the first shots of a trade war; we are a few volleys in already.
Speaking to reporters after one of the business-focused events that made up Thursday’s programme, Mr Martin advocated dialogue and negotiations between the EU and the US, warning that tariffs would hurt businesses and consumers.
But the atmosphere seems hardly conducive to constructive exchanges between friendly nations. Trump described the EU in terms now becoming customary – “one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the world, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States”.
Later on Thursday morning he responded to criticisms in the Wall Street Journal – hardly a bastion of left-liberal thought – by insisting: “The Globalist Wall Street Journal has no idea what they are doing or saying. They are owned by the polluted thinking of the European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of ‘screwing’ the United States of United States. Their (WSJ!) thinking is antiquated and weak, and very bad for the USA. But have no fear, we will WIN on everything!!!”
Later, for good measure, he added: “The US doesn’t have Free Trade. We have ‘Stupid Trade.’ The Entire world is RIPPING US OFF!!!”
Irish businesses – many of whom are represented in Washington this week – are fast coming to terms with the fact that the world is changing, and changing fast. But it’s hard to figure out how to respond when it’s so hard to predict what the Trump administration will actually do. Tariffs can be cancelled as quickly as they are announced.
This uncertainty is increasingly the cause of criticism from business interests (as reflected in the Wall St Journal) and other quarters from which Trump might expect support. Stock market wobbles this week are also spooking investors. A key question now becomes how much tolerance Trump has for the political costs of his economic and trade reforms.
For Martin, buoyed by navigating the politics of Washington successfully, comes the realisation that the economics of Trumpworld will remain hostile, and a clear threat to Ireland’s interests.
