There is some uncertainty within the Government that its nominee for leas-cheann comhairle in the Dáil will be supported by all 95 TDs who have supported the programme for government.
However, several senior figures in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have said the Government should have a clear majority without a repeat of the surprise result of 2020, where the coalition-backed candidate lost out.
The veteran Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness will be the Government’s agreed candidate when the election involving the Dáil’s 174 TDs will take place on February 17th or February 18th.
No candidate from the Opposition has been named as yet although it is likely Sinn Féin will name Aengus Ó Snodaigh. The outgoing Leas-Cheann Comhairle Catherine Connolly is also said to be interested in running again. A Sinn Féin source said there is the possibility of all the Opposition parties and groups running an agreed candidate.
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However, because the poll will be conducted by secret ballot, there is uncertainty within Government circles over whether or not all of the TDs who supported the programme for government will also back Mr McGuinness for the role.
“With a secret ballot there is always a chance of votes being leaked. John [McGuinness] can be direct and does not appeal to everybody,” said a Fianna Fáil source.
However, the source was confident that the TDs who supported the programme for government will heavily back Mr McGuinness, as they did Verona Murphy of the Regional Independents for the ceann comhairle position after Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris publicly declared they were backing her.
A total of 95 TDs have supported the programme for government, compared to 78 TDs who are now in Opposition.
Nine TDs backing the Government would have to vote for the Opposition in order for Mr McGuinness to be defeated.
The two main Government parties will share the leas-cheann comhairle position if Mr McGuinness is elected. In that scenario, Fine Gael TD for Sligo-Leitrim Frank Feighan is scheduled to succeed Mr McGuinness once the change-over takes place between the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste in late 2027.
Until 2020, the position of leas-cheann comhairle was reserved for an Opposition TD.
Ms Connolly, an Independent TD for Galway West, had a shock victory over Fine Gael candidate Fergus O’Dowd in 2020, winning by a margin of only three votes (77 to 74) in a secret ballot.
It marked the first Dáil defeat for the new Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green coalition and was received as an embarrassment by them. As many as 15 government TDs voted for Ms Connolly and a further three TDs did not vote. She was the first woman to be elected to the position in more than a century.
Four Independent TDs who supported the current Government were involved in a protracted dispute over speaking rights, which ended when Ms Murphy ruled they could not be recognised as a technical group in opposition.
Contacted on Thursday, a member of that group of four TDs, Danny Healy-Rae from Kerry, said the vote for the leas-cheann comhairle role was not something he had yet considered.
The Dublin Bay North TD Barry Heneghan said he was supporting the programme for government. “That the point of it. My vote will go to the person who I think will be best suited to the position,” he said.
[ Will Dáil speaking rights row explode again?Opens in new window ]
Mr McGuinness (69) is from Kilkenny city. He was elected to the Dáil in 1997 and was a minister of state between 2007 and 2009. He also served as the chair of the Public Accounts Committee between 2011 and 2016 and, more recently, he was chair of the all-party Finance Committee.
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