Micheál Martin will become Taoiseach for the second time on Wednesday in circumstances that could hardly be more removed from his previous election in 2020.
Then, pandemic restrictions meant the pomp and ceremony which surround the choosing of a new government were largely in abeyance, as the Dáil was sitting in the National Convention Centre, everyone was masked and socially distanced and no family members of supporters were present. Martin’s family watched in Cork.
This time, they’ll be in the Dáil’s distinguished visitors’ gallery, while the families and supporters of other TDs and would-be ministers will pack Leinster House from mid-morning. It’s a gala day for politicians.
And a day of triumph for Martin. He has been Fianna Fáil leader now for 14 years – longer than Charles Haughey and Bertie Ahern; longer, in fact, than any Fianna Fáil leader apart from Éamon de Valera. He became leader at a time when the party’s very future was in doubt and when most people – perhaps including himself – expected that he would be the first leader of his party not to become taoiseach.
His resuscitation of his party and his election for the second time marks him out as one of the most consequential of Fianna Fáil’s eight leaders. And while it is hardly the day to ruminate upon it, it is probably unlikely that he will be in this position again.
So what happens on Wednesday?
The Dáil meets at 11am, with the election of the Taoiseach the first item on the agenda (though there is the possibility of a row about the speaking rights issue, it will not be substantively dealt with).
Martin will be elected with the votes of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Independent deputies – after the agreement sealed with the Regional Independent Group and the Healy-Raes, the incoming Coalition has a majority of 17. Recent administrations have shown that government majorities are often bigger in practice than on paper. That will be one of the numbers to watch tomorrow.
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Once Martin is elected, the Dáil will adjourn and the Taoiseach-elect will leave Leinster House – usually through a throng of wellwishers – and make his way to Áras an Uachtaráin where he will be formally appointed by President Michael D Higgins. Only when the President signs the notice of appointment and presents Martin with his seal of office does Simon Harris cease to be Taoiseach and power pass to the new holder of the office.
By tradition, the President and the new Taoiseach take tea in the Áras – the first of the “article 28″ meetings at which the Taoiseach keeps the President updated about the work of government.
Then the Taoiseach returns to Government Buildings to his new office, where he will begin seeing the men and women who will be the new ministers in the government he will lead. These are the few hours that ministerial hopefuls dread and anticipate – will the phone ring summoning them across the “Bridge of Sighs”, the elevated glass walkway between the Leinster House complex and Government Buildings? Or are they to be disappointed?
Once the new ministers have been notified and invited to join the Government, the new Taoiseach will lead the new Cabinet into the Dáil – which will reconvene at about 5.30pm – for another debate and vote.
Once that is concluded, the incoming Cabinet travels to Áras an Uachtaráin where they will be formally appointed by the President. Once the formalities are concluded, the new Cabinet will hold its first meeting in the diningroom at the Áras. The agenda tends to be light; the real business of running the country will not begin until the new Cabinet meets in Government Buildings on Thursday morning.
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