Mary Butler and Dara Calleary are being tipped within the Fianna Fáil party as the most likely junior ministers to be promoted by incoming Taoiseach Micheál Martin next week.
In Fine Gael, outgoing junior ministers Martin Heydon and Jennifer Carroll MacNeill’s names are frequently being mentioned as likely to be promoted when the Government is formed on Wednesday.
With Government formation talks culminating with a deal between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and nine Independent TDs, there is growing speculation within the larger parties as to who will be appointed to Cabinet once Micheál Martin is elected Taoiseach again next week.
Fine Gael is holding the first of a series of meetings with members around the county in Dublin on Friday evening as it continues the process of ratifying the Programme for Government.
Fianna Fáil will hold a special ardfheis for its members to have their say on the Programme for Government on Sunday.
Fianna Fáil is set to have eight Cabinet seats and seven will go to Fine Gael, with its leader Simon Harris set to assume the role of Tánaiste and probably Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Both parties are also expected to have one super junior each, a Minister of State with a seat at Cabinet.
The is a growing view within Fianna Fáil that its outgoing senior ministers – Jack Chambers, Darragh O’Brien, Norma Foley and Charlie McConalogue will all stay in Cabinet.
While sources stressed that Mr Martin’s thinking is not known to the wider party, one TD said dropping an incumbent would be seen as “harsh” and it is “not his [Micheál Martin’s] style”.
Another source said: “It’s one thing to not appoint somebody [to Cabinet], it’s a completely different thing to drop somebody.”
Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe is expected to move back to the Department of Finance, swapping with Mr Chambers who would take up the Department of Public Expenditure brief.
There has been much speculation that Mr O’Brien will remain on as Minister for Housing, but Ms Foley could be set for a move to the Department of Social Protection and Rural Affairs.
Mr McConalogue could be leaving agriculture for another department amid a wider switching of departments between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Like Mr Martin, Fine Gael leader Mr Harris’s intentions for allocating his party’s Cabinet roles are being kept very tight.
One source said it would be a “no-brainer” for Martin Heydon to get the senior agriculture job should it go to a Fine Gael politician saying he has “done his time” at the department as a junior minister.
Chief whip Hildegarde Naughton, a Galway West TD, has also been mentioned as a possible contender for the role – although it has also been suggested that her background as a teacher and junior Minister at the Department of Education would be a good fit for the top job there.
Limerick County TD Patrick O’Donovan – another former teacher – is also seen as a possible Minister for Education on the basis of his stint at the Department of Higher Education.
There has been speculation that the Higher Education Department could then be a possible new home for Mr McConalogue.
Mayo TD Mr Calleary was named by several Fianna Fáil sources as likely to secure promotion from his current super junior role at the Department of Enterprise, possibly becoming Minister for Transport.
Waterford TD Mary Butler, meanwhile, a junior minister at the Department of Health and a member of Fianna Fáil’s Government formation talks negotiating team, has been linked to the role of Minister for Children and Disabilities.
Those promotions would mean Mr Martin would have two Cabinet roles to fill – Minister for Justice and Government Chief Whip, a super junior role.
The current Minister for Justice, Fine Gael’s Helen McEntee is widely expected to move, mostly likely to the Department of Enterprise. The holder of that job, Peter Burke is also expected to stay in Cabinet.
Minister of State in that department, James Browne – another member of the Fianna Fáil negotiating team – has been mentioned by colleagues as someone in line for possible promotion, as has fellow Government talks negotiator James Lawless, while sources said Dublin Bay South’s Jim O’Callaghan should not be ruled out.
There has been some suggestion that Wexford TD Mr Browne could lose out if Ms Butler – who is also in the southeast – is promoted. One colleague said the possibility that they would both get the nod should not be dismissed noting that Mr Browne got “serious kudos” for getting legislation on gambling over the line.
There has also been speculation that senior Fianna Fáil politicians like junior ministers Thomas Byrne and Niall Collins and TDs Timmy Dooley and Niamh Smyth could also be in line for a promotion.
Meanwhile, there is a vacancy at the Department of Health after Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly lost his seat in the general election.
Fine Gael Dún Laoghaire TD Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, the Minister of State for European Affairs, has been linked to that role.
The names of Mayo TD Alan Dillon and Dublin-Rathdown’s Neale Richmond have also been mentioned as possible Cabinet appointments from the ranks of the Fine Gael junior ministers.
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