The programme for government has been agreed and will be published later today. After a cloistered process to agree and write it, details are beginning to leak out. Here’s what we know so far:
Housing
Demand-side schemes aimed at turning renters into buyers will be retained until 2030 – and it looks like they will be expanded too. The shared-equity First Home Scheme will be expanded to include second-hand homes rather than just new builds, and while we might not get detail of it today, it looks like there will be changes to Help to Buy as well. Most likely on the amount that can be claimed back, and whether rent can be included when being assessed for how much you can get under the scheme.
Health
The draft programme for government includes proposals for multiannual funding for the health service. There is also to be a focus on digitalisation, including e-records for patients and telehealth services. The document is also understood to include plans for a statutory home care scheme.
Law and Order
There will be a new transport security force created to patrol public transport services. It will sit outside the Department of Justice, and its members will not be drawn from the ranks of gardaí, but will have the power of arrest – much like the Airport Police Service and the Customs.
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Ramping up Garda recruitment and exploring the possibility of opening a second Garda college are understood to be among justice measures in the draft programme for government.
There is also expected to be a commitment to implement the proposals for safer streets put forward by the Dublin city centre taskforce.
Climate and transport
The Greens’ much-vaunted (by the Greens anyway) 2:1 split in spending in favour of new public transport versus new roads looks like it won’t be replicated in the new government. However, the spending on public transport infrastructure will continue, and there will be an emphasis on wind energy and the likes, but whether this can shield the incoming government from charges of climate backsliding remains to be seen.
The process for approving and building roads is expected to be overhauled after the Greens were accused of stalling investment.
VAT
While sources said the programme for government won’t be explicit on VAT, it is understood there is political agreement for VAT on energy to stay at 9 per cent and fall from 13.5 per cent to 9 per cent for food, hospitality, hairdressers and entertainment in the next budget.
Foreign Affairs
The Occupied Territories Bill looks like it will proceed, courtesy of a programme for government commitment. However, just how expansive it is, how quickly it will proceed, and the reaction of multinationals will be key hurdles to negotiate.
Jobs and departmental reorganisations
The expected split of cabinet positions will be eight for Fianna Fáil and seven for Fine Gael. Many of the departments, such as health and justice, are expected to change hands between the two.
The Independents will get two super juniors (to Regional Independent Group (RIG) members Noel Grealish and Seán Canney) and three juniors (to RIG members Marian Harkin and Kevin “Boxer” Moran, and to Michael Healy-Rae).
There will be a substantial reorganisation of government departments, focused mostly on the break-up of some functions in departments formerly steered by the three Green Party cabinet ministers. This will be outlined in the programme for government later.
Despite consideration being given to moving the energy functions of government into the Department of Enterprise, they look set to stay where they are. The communications function of the departments led by Eamon Ryan will switch to the Department of Media, where Catherine Martin held the minister’s chair. Meanwhile, the tourism part of her portfolio will switch to the Department of Enterprise. There will be one minister over the Department of Transport and the Department of the Environment, as was the case with Ryan.
There will be no new stand-alone departments created, with the dual campaign trail promises from Fine Gael (infrastructure) and Fianna Fáil (domestic affairs) catered to by giving extra prominence within the departments of Public Expenditure and Justice, as well as extra resources. Integration will be stripped out of the Department of Children led by Roderic O’Gorman and transferred to the new domestic affairs section of the Department of Justice.
Childcare
The programme for government is expected to commit to introducing childcare capped at a rate of €200 per month per child over a number of years. It will also outline a commitment to roll out a larger public childcare sector.
Disability
Disability is expected to be a big winner, with the means test for carers likely to be phased out over the course of the next government. And there will be more in this area.
Referendums
It looks like there will be no referendums on a right to housing or the public ownership of water infrastructure.
What we still don’t know
Among the “known unknowns” are the precise nature of any constituency deals done with the Independents, and whether the larger parties’ claims of “no deals” will stand up to scrutiny.
We also don’t know exactly the choreography of the changeover of the taoiseach’s role between Micheál Martin and the Fine Gael leader, presumably around halfway through the coalition’s lifespan, but Fianna Fáil’s greater seat haul in the general election may be represented here.
We also don’t know the composition of the next cabinet – and won’t until next Wednesday.
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