The incoming government is likely to expand roads investment after projects were seen to have stalled under the Green Party, senior figures in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have said.
With formal talks between the parties set to resume today, transport, enterprise, climate, health and justice will move centre stage after agreement was reached in principle on about half of a new programme for government before Christmas.
However, it is “highly unlikely” that a new government will commit to a swathe of referendums, such as creating a right to housing in the Constitution – something the outgoing administration had targeted but ultimately fell away.
With the Green Party no longer involved in government, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are wary of being accused of backsliding on climate policy, and will commit to strengthening delivery of green energy and recommit to climate goals and investment in public transport.
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But while the former Green Party leader and outgoing transport minister Eamon Ryan was accused of allowing roads investment to drift, senior sources in both parties indicated a step change in this area was now being considered.
“Transport will be different. Road building will happen and there will be a smoother capital programme to deliver local, regional and national roads,” said one Fianna Fáil negotiator, decrying what they described as a “stop-start road programme” in recent years which had added delays and costs.
A Fine Gael source said that on transport “a lot of road projects stalled under Eamon Ryan – both [Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil] want to make progress.”
The detail of how roads investment will be overhauled is still “up for debate”, one senior figure said, and will be part of wider reforms to speed up infrastructure delivery. The 2:1 ratio of expenditure between new public transport and new roads spending enshrined by the previous government is probably “open for discussion”.
There is significant caution, however, about committing the government to holding referendums after the outgoing coalition suffered a heavy defeat in what was seen as a pair of polarising and volatile votes on the family and care referendums last March.
While no substantial discussions on referendums have yet taken place, and the decision may ultimately be left to Simon Harris and Micheál Martin in the final stages of negotiations on a programme for government, there are concerns about passing referendums or achieving consensus on them.
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On a housing referendum, one Fianna Fáil negotiator warned immigration would come into any debate which could be “extremely divisive” and quite possibly doomed to failure.
“The big thing is how we can get housing delivered ... that’s a much bigger question than a constitutional debate for four or five months,” said a second Fianna Fáil Minister.
Similarly, on the public ownership of water infrastructure, there are fears such a step could reignite old conflicts on an issue which has slid down the political agenda. Nonetheless, it is expected that a referendum on the Unified Patent Court is likely over the course of the next administration’s term.
Meanwhile, negotiators are of the view that it is unlikely the next programme for government will commit to passing hate speech legislation, something the last administration ditched.
On justice reform, the recruitment and training of gardaí is expected to be a key issue, as is the future of drug policy, with one source suggesting that the joint Oireachtas committee on drug use could be reconvened and asked to develop its interim report to final stage as a basis for policy. The potential decriminalisation of cannabis possession for personal use was a flashpoint issue between the two larger parties during the general election campaign.
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