Independent TDs are likely to seek ministerial office in exchange for supporting a new coalition as the prospect of centre-left participation in government recedes after failed talks between Labour and the Social Democrats.
If a centre-left party does not sign up for government, it is likely to significantly improve the bargaining position of any Independent who does want to participate formally in government, rather than backing a coalition from the Opposition benches.
A person close to discussions said on Friday the Independent TDs are likely to seek “something along the lines of the last time” that Independents supported an administration.
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During the 2016-2020 government, several Independent TDs were in ministerial positions, both in cabinet and junior ministries. However, it is also understood the idea floated in some quarters that the Independents would rotate a cabinet position among them is unlikely to form part of their requests.
It comes as the Social Democrats shut the door on a Labour Party plan to form a common platform in advance of coalition talks. After a meeting between the two parties on Friday, a Labour Party source said there was “no appetite” from the Social Democrats to proceed jointly.
A Social Democrats TD concurred: “There definitely won’t be a common negotiating platform.” That party is understood to have outlined the belief that its mandate was delivered on the basis that it would enter government-formation talks alone — with the party having been lukewarm on the idea of a joint platform floated by Labour and the Greens during the election.
The development would seem to make Labour Party participation less likely on the basis that many of its TDs have reservations about going in alone with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who are likely to form the basis of the next government.
Nonetheless, there are a range of views within the party over what it should do, with Tipperary TD Alan Kelly said to have made an impassioned speech to the Labour parliamentary party on Thursday favouring participation.
One Labour TD said it was now down to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in particular to make an offer. “If they’re to come and suggest that they’re willing to share government in a meaningful way, let’s hear it.”
But another TD said Labour’s participation in government was “highly unlikely” following the failure of talks with the Social Democrats. The party is to meet on Monday to decide its next steps.
Meanwhile, Social Democrats TDs believe privately that the two larger parties are not enthusiastic about involving it in government, with senior figures in the party of the view its five red-line policies are unlikely to be accommodated. These include 50,000 affordable-purchase homes, full implementation of Sláintecare, and a senior minister for disability.
The party considers agreement on these matters as the baseline for participation in government.
One Social Democrat TD said on Friday: “It’s very clear we’re not a party they want to be in government with.” A second added: “There’s nothing to indicate to date that they intend a fundamental change of direction, for example on housing.”
While a government based on Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael is seen as far and away the most likely outcome, Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris said on Friday his party should not be taken for granted. A senior Fine Gael source said the process of government formation is being overlooked, with that party and Fianna Fáil not having spoken formally since the election.
On Friday, Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman downplayed the chances of him as the sole TD from his party playing any role in government, or supporting a coalition from the Opposition benches. But he urged Labour and the Social Democrats to enter government-formation talks.
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