Support for Independent candidates has jumped in the first opinion poll of the general election campaign, but Fine Gael retains a clear lead over its party rivals.
With just two weeks to go before polling, Fine Gael is on 25 per cent support, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll finds. This is well ahead of its rivals in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, both on 19 per cent.
But it is the Independents which show the biggest move, up by four points to 20 per cent. This includes support for the new Independent Ireland party, which is formally registered as a political party, but which many voters think of as coming under the broader Independent umbrella.
The state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is as follows: Fine Gael 25, per cent (down two); Sinn Féin, 19 per cent (down one); Fianna Fáil, 19 per cent (no change).
Temperatures plummet on election campaign trail amid blizzard of political promises
Promises, promises: What do the Election 2024 parties stand for? Use this tool to compare their manifestos
‘I wouldn’t like to be a young person. You get a job but you have nowhere to live’: Mixed odds on Government at Mullingar dog track
Some see election campaigns as opportunities to write Sinn Féin’s obituary. Sorry to disappoint
Among the smaller parties, the Green Party is at 3 per cent (down two); Labour, 5 per cent (down one); the Social Democrats, 4 per cent (no change); People Before Profit Solidarity, 2 per cent (no change); Aontú, 3 per cent (up two). Independents are at 20 per cent (up four).
Undecided voters – who are excluded from the above figures – drop by four points to 16 per cent.
On these figures, Independent candidates are set for significant gains across the country when the votes are cast. Fine Gael, however, despite dropping by two points since the last poll in September, is on course to be the largest party in the next Dáil.
Poll: Support for independents on the rise
Fine Gael’s Simon Harris remains the most popular party leader, with a satisfaction rating of 50 per cent, though this represents a sharp drop of five points since the last poll. The Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is on 45 per cent (down two), while Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin improves marginally to 31 per cent.
Roderic O’Gorman of the Green Party is up four to 21 per cent, while the Government as a whole drops marginally to 39 per cent.
[ Analysis: Poll indicates no bounce for Coalition parties via budgetOpens in new window ]
There has been an increase in the proportion of voters saying that the country is generally going in the right direction, up by five points to 42 per cent. Yet half of voters (50 per cent) say the country is generally going in the wrong direction, down by four points since last February.
Voters were also asked what was the issue that will have the most influence on their vote. The clear leader was the cost of living, nominated by 30 per cent of respondents.
Next on the list was health (18 per cent) and house prices (17 per cent), followed by immigration (9 per cent), the economy (6 per cent), the cost of rent (6 per cent), law and order (5 per cent), climate (4 per cent) and tax (3 per cent).
Asked what the next government should do if tax revenues decline, 60 per cent of respondents said it should reduce spending, 14 per cent said it should increase borrowing and 12 per cent said it should raise taxes.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies.
Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A series is conducted through face-to-face sampling; personal in-home interviewing took place on November 12th and 13th. The total number of interviews conducted was 1,200. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
- Sign up to our Inside Politics newsletter to get the behind-the-scenes take direct to your inbox
