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Explainer: How did the Government come up with its latest housing target of 50,500 new homes a year?

The Coalition did not want to set targets it could not meet within the duration of the current Government – although Ministers would likely contest this

The overall target is for 303,000 homes in the period from 2025-2030. It will not immediately hit the higher end of the target range, with a target of 41,000 in 2025, rising to 60,000 in 2030. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw/The Irish Times
The overall target is for 303,000 homes in the period from 2025-2030. It will not immediately hit the higher end of the target range, with a target of 41,000 in 2025, rising to 60,000 in 2030. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw/The Irish Times
Jack Horgan-Jones's picture
Jack Horgan-Jones
Wed Nov 06 2024 - 05:00

The Government has finally decided on new housing targets averaging out at 50,500 a year, up to 2030, after a long process which looked last week like it was on the verge of collapse.

Why did it take so long?

That’s a good question - especially seeing as the Coalition has admitted that its housing targets were too low for many months, and Coalition leaders had already publicly embraced the idea of moving to higher targets.

We’ve also had a range of higher targets suggested by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and the Housing Commission, and in draft versions of the National Planning Framework (NPF).

Politically, the obvious answer is that the Coalition did not want to set targets that it could not meet in the lifespan of the current Government – although Ministers would doubtlessly contest that. The last-minute hold-up came as Fianna Fáil refused to sign off on new targets – with the suggestion it was doing so in order to campaign separately during the upcoming general election campaign on housing, rather than be joined at the hip to its Coalition partners.

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What difference does it make?

Actually, quite a bit. A lot flows from the targets – and more specifically, from the NPF, which is a key component in translating the political aspirations of the Government into a reality on the ground. The NPF is what is used by local authorities when drafting up their plans for development and zoning in their areas, and the current version is based on outdated census figures which dramatically underestimated population growth. Critics say this means some local authorities have been making decisions in a bizarre parallel universe based on old data.

So is it sorted now?

Yes and no. Politically, the question is settled for the next period, and the Coalition parties are likely to campaign on the agreed figures. But if they don’t get back in, the next government may want to change them – Sinn Féin has already said the figures underestimate the true scale of unmet need, for example. The new NPF will not actually be in place until a new Dáil is convened, as it has to be voted on by the house – and there’s simply no time to do that before the Dáil is dissolved as anticipated on Thursday or Friday. So it will be several more weeks at least before the NPF is officially adopted, even though political agreement has been struck.

What are the new targets anyway? And why that funny figure of 50,500?

The overall target is for 303,000 homes in the period from 2025-2030, giving that average figure over six years. It will not immediately hit the higher end of the range though, with a target of 41,000 in 2025, rising to 60,000 in 2030. The inclusion of those chunky figures in latter years brings the average up – for example, if 2030 wasn’t included, the average would be 48,600.

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Do we know any more detail?

As of now, not really. It is understood that the Cabinet did not discuss the breakdown between private homes, and social and affordable units built or funded by the State, which will be a key factor in delivery and public funding.

The targets have been set for 2030, but the revised draft of the NPF provides a basis for building an average of 54,000 homes annually to 2040.

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Can the targets be achieved?

The trajectory suggests maybe. Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien has said he believes about 40,000 homes will be built this year, but the Opposition and industry say it will not hit this level. Shifting towards the higher output requires a lot of moving parts to align – not least the labour force, and solving capacity constraint issues such as water and grid infrastructure shortfalls.