Sixty first-year students in Queen’s in Belfast joined the Ulster Unionist Party’s university branch last month, following days of work during freshers’ week by people such as the branch’s vice-president, Jay Basra.
“This year was the best we’ve had, but there’s a sense of general apathy towards politics as a whole. Queen’s is a big campus, but you wouldn’t have more than a few hundred involved in political societies,” he said.
The hard graft to attract newcomers into political parties is backed by the results of the Westminster Election Study from the University of Liverpool that mines deeply into Northern Irish voter attitudes.
“Young people are less likely to vote, that’s the first thing, so they don’t exert the influence on Northern Irish politics that they really ought to,” says Prof Jon Tonge of the University of Liverpool.
Nevertheless, the world they will create will be different from what has come before: “They are less likely to be religious, they’re more likely to say they are neither unionist nor nationalist,” he goes on.
In numbers that undermine the calls on the British government to hold a united Ireland referendum quickly, 48.6 per cent of all ages of those polled want the long-term future of Northern Ireland to be within the UK, while just 33.7 per cent prefer Irish unity.
However, the answer given by those who are aged 18-25 on the question of a united Ireland, or staying in the United Kingdom differs significantly, with 47 per cent on either side.
The Belfast Agreement, accepted in referendums North and South, lays out that it is up to the Northern Ireland Secretary of State of the day to decide when a referendum should be held, if it appears likely that a majority would vote for Irish unity.
In addition, it would not be possible to hold another referendum on the subject of unity for seven years after a referendum, where the question had been rejected by a majority of voters.
The gap between those favouring staying in the UK or unifying with the rest of Ireland is smaller among those who always vote, irrespective of age, with 57.1 per cent in favour, and 42.2 per cent against.
For Jay Basra, the attitudes of younger Northern Irish voters are based on the things that impact on their lives today, not on things that might or might not happen in the future:
“Most young people don’t care,” he said. “They think they’re safe enough in the union as it is and there’s no real pressing issue that’s going to disappear. They grew up with Stormont, they understand Stormont. It’s there, and they don’t think it is going away in the morning.”
In the long term, they may become more exercised about the question, but “in the short term they want Stormont to work on bread-and-butter issues, the cost-of-living crisis and what affects them in their pockets”, he said.
Given the demographics and changing opinions, however, it is clear that the gap between those wanting to stay in the UK and those who wish to unite with the Republic is going to close significantly in the next decade, as older voters pass away.
The gap in Northern Irish society is sharply illustrated in one table where 97.4 per cent of those who define themselves as unionist/loyalist believe Northern Ireland’s long-term policy should be to remain part of the UK.
By contrast, just 1.9 per cent of those defining themselves this way believe Northern Ireland’s long-term policy should be to unite with the rest of Ireland, while 92 per cent of nationalist/republicans think that they should.
Just 7.6 per cent of nationalist/republicans opt for a continuing union with Britain as Northern Ireland’s long-term policy. However, the gap between those who declare themselves as “neither” is even more illuminating.
Here, 58.5 per cent of this group who identify themselves as neither unionist/loyalist nor nationalist/republican opt for the union, while 37.5 per cent want to join with the Republic.
The numbers of people identifying as Catholics who favour remaining in the United Kingdom stands at 12.1 per cent, which is far higher than the 7.6 per cent of Protestants who would opt for Irish unity.
The passing of the years is changing attitudes to the past, however. On legacy, 31.8 per cent agree and 47.9 per cent disagree that it is time to end all prosecutions for actions that were committed during the Troubles.
However, those aged 18-25 are most likely to agree, or strongly agree, that it is time to do so, compared with just 30 per cent among those aged 45-64 and 33 per cent for over 66, with the strongest memories of the violence.
“Young people are looking towards the future. They didn’t experience the Troubles,” says Basra, “so there is a disconnect there. They never experienced the violence. They don’t want to go back, but most of our politicians are looking towards the past.”
The Westminster Election Study highlights significant differences across Northern Irish society. Most especially, it shows that identity and religious and political outlook matters. Strikingly so, in fact.
Separated out by political identity, 74.9 per cent of those who declare themselves as unionist/loyalist vote, with the figure of nationalist/republicans just slightly higher, at 77.5 per cent.
However, the number of voters among those who declare themselves as “neither” – often, but not always, the category that votes Alliance, but, more especially, parties such as People Before Profit – is far lower. Just 43.7 per cent go to the polls.
Equally, a majority of non-believers do not vote, either. Just 45.7 per cent of them do so, compared with 68.7 per cent of declared Catholics and 68.2 per cent of declared Protestants. Other faiths divide 50/50 on whether they turn out or not.
On social issues, Northern Ireland remains much more socially conservative than the Republic, with more than half of Catholics believing that abortion should be permitted only where the mother’s life is in danger.
Just over 40 per cent of Protestants agreed with them. Those who describe themselves as non-religious divide equally on this question, significantly below the numbers to be found in the Republic.
A tenth of Northern Ireland’s population believes abortion should not be allowed under any circumstances, while just 28.7 per cent believe it should be allowed in the first 12 weeks – as happens in the Republic.
Meanwhile, a large majority (71.9 per cent) prefer that children be educated in integrated schools rather than own-religion or single-faith schools, though little more than 8 per cent of children today are actually taught this way in Northern Ireland.
The support in theory, at least, for integrated education if not in practice is shared across age groups in Northern Ireland, with two-thirds of those aged over 66 and nearly 85 per cent aged 18-25 supporting it.
Though voters of all ages are far from confident that Stormont’s institutions will endure, nearly two-thirds believe the powersharing system remains the best basis for governing Northern Ireland, even if changes are required.
The exception to this are those who support Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice, but the majority support for powersharing stands in stark contrast to the years immediately after 1998 when a strong majority of unionists of all shades opposed it.
Perhaps not surprisingly, since there is nothing that immediately needs to be decided, the issue of a united Ireland is far down the list of priorities that most people have as they deal with daily challenges.
When questioned, 41 per cent put the cost of living as their primary issue, and a further 19.7 per cent put it as their secondary issue. More than 16 per cent list health as their number one worry, with 28. 2 per cent listing it as their number two.
By contrast, “Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom”, or “Irish unity” are minority sports, with just 3.3 per cent placing it first as their priority issue, and 1.9 per cent listing it as their second.
The number putting Irish unity as their first concern is roughly similar, at 3.1 per cent, though just 0.9 per cent put it down as their second most important point of concern in the world of 2024.
