Subscriber OnlyPoliticsPoll Analysis

Jump in support for Fine Gael puts it seven points ahead of Sinn Féin and eight points ahead of Fianna Fáil

Combined vote for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party is 51%, sufficient to see current Government returned if a general election were held tomorrow

Illustration: Paul Scott
Illustration: Paul Scott
Damian Loscher
Thu Sept 19 2024 - 06:00

The latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll reveals a jump in support for Fine Gael (on 27 per cent), putting the party a clear seven points ahead of Sinn Féin (on 20 per cent) and eight points ahead of Fianna Fáil (on 19 per cent).

The performance of Simon Harris as party leader and Taoiseach, surging 17 points to a 55 per cent satisfaction rating, has given the party a real boost.

The Labour Party is on 6 per cent, with the Greens on 5 per cent. Independent candidates combined total 15 per cent. The Social Democrats are on 4 per cent. People Before Profit is on 2 per cent, with Aontú on 1 per cent.

Fieldwork for this poll was conducted between September 14th and 17th among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 voters aged 18 years and upwards. All constituencies were sampled, with interviewing conducted in-home by Ipsos B&A interviewers. Percentages are reliable to within approximately 2.8 per cent in either direction.

READ MORE

At the time of interviewing the big news story was the Apple tax windfall, adding further pressure to a Government awash with cash only weeks out from a pre-election budget. “Insufficient funds” is no longer an excuse available to the Government.

When a general election is called the electorate could either choose to reward the Government parties for their prudent management of the nation’s finances or to punish them for their failure to deploy our bulging budget surplus to solve problems in housing and health, or to raise the public’s sense of financial wellbeing.

Ipsos
Ipsos

Today’s poll seems to suggest the Government, as a collective, is being rewarded. Satisfaction with the Government is up nine points to 40 per cent.

The combined vote for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party is 51 per cent: sufficient to see the current Government returned if a general election were held tomorrow. It has been a few years since an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll signalled majority support for the Coalition.

[ Pat Leahy: Poll findings will prompt renewed discussion about pre-Christmas election ]

[ Fine Gael support increases, with approval ratings for Simon Harris surging ]

Fine Gael is the clear winner in today’s poll, climbing four points to land on 27 per cent and registering the party’s strongest performance since June 2021, when there was still some Covid credit in the bank.

Ipsos
Ipsos

On 31 per cent, Fine Gael is the clear favourite in rural Ireland. Regionally the party has made impressive gains in Connacht/Ulster, where support is up 16 points to 34 per cent.

The other talking point from this September poll is the confirmation that Sinn Féin has lost its status as Ireland’s most popular party, down a further three points since May to 20 per cent currently.

Sinn Féin still commands a huge following among 18- to 34-year-olds, on 31 per cent. However, the party noticeably lags behind both Fine Gael and Fine Fáil among the over-35s, where it attracts just 17 per cent of the vote. Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald has also fallen, from 36 per cent to 30 per cent.

Fianna Fáil has lost voter share in this latest poll, albeit a marginal drop of just 1 point to 19 per cent. Demographically only in Munster do Fianna Fáil pip Fine Gael by two percentage points. Otherwise Fianna Fáil is trailing within all demographics and by double-digit percentages in Dublin, in Connacht/Ulster, among the under-35s and among middle-class voters.

Micheál Martin (47 per cent satisfaction, up one point) remains relatively popular as party leader, especially among the party faithful (79 per cent satisfaction) but also among Fine Gael voters (70 per cent satisfaction).

Support for the Green Party is at 5 per cent (up one point). Satisfaction with Roderic O’Gorman’s performance as leader is a modest 17 per cent and still a few points behind where Eamon Ryan left off.

Some benefit should accrue to the smaller parties and Independents from Sinn Féin’s decline, and this had indeed proven to be the case. Labour is up one point to 6 per cent, and the Social Democrats are one point higher on 4 per cent.

The intention of voting for an Independent candidate in the next election has softened over the summer and now measures 16 per cent (down one point).

When the election is held will be an all-of-Government decision, no doubt. Today’s poll will provide ammunition to those in Government arguing for an early election.