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Snapshot poll: Housing is back as the most concerning political issue. Immigration drops to second

Cost of living/inflation and climate change/sustainability tied for third place among respondents to Irish Times/Snapshot poll

Mentions of immigration among voters in the Irish Times Snapshot poll dropped from 26 per cent in June to 16 per cent in July. Photograph: Tom Honan
Mentions of immigration among voters in the Irish Times Snapshot poll dropped from 26 per cent in June to 16 per cent in July. Photograph: Tom Honan
Damian Loscher
Mon Jul 29 2024 - 00:01

Housing is back as the issue that most concerns the Irish public, according to the latest Irish Times/Snapshot poll.

Each Snapshot poll is conducted among a random national sample of 1,000 Irish adults aged 15 years and upwards. Respondents to the survey are asked what they have seen or heard recently from Government that makes them think the country is going in the right or wrong direction.

Housing has been a key driver of perceived Government performance since Snapshot polling began in 2023. Over the past year, consistently about one in five respondents have mentioned housing first when asked what they think the Government is getting right or wrong.

Housing accounts for 20 per cent of mentions (down one point) on this latest wave. Not surprisingly, the Government is more likely to be seen to be getting it wrong than right on housing – positive comments around an increase in supply are dwarfed by negative perceptions of availability and affordability. More often than not, when “housing” is mentioned, the descriptor “crisis” is attached.

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Among the under-35s, housing is top of mind for almost one in three (31 per cent).

Mentions of immigration have dropped from 26 per cent in June to 16 per cent in July. Verbatim comments collected during the poll hold some clues as to what is behind this retreat, with words such as “tougher” and “tighter” popping up frequently.

Although immigration is less high profile this wave, sentiment among those citing immigration leans strongly negative. The EU Migration Pact was referenced by some respondents in this poll as a move in the wrong direction.

For context, it is very important to note that interviewing for this wave of Snapshot took place between July 1st and 14th, largely before violent protests against plans to accommodate international protection applicants in Coolock made the headlines. Scenes of violence and destruction have a habit of sticking in the mind, so immigration may return as the number one issue in the next Snapshot poll.

Behind housing and immigration, the chasing pack led by the cost of living/inflation and climate change/sustainability.

Cost of living/inflation worries (5 per cent, up two points) have not gone away, but they are nowhere near as salient as they were last September when concerns peaked at 17 per cent against a backdrop of very high inflation.

Often cost of living/inflation and housing are mentioned in the same breath – a “chicken and egg” situation where rents are high, adding to the cost of living, and day-to-day living expenses are high making it difficult to save enough to be able to buy a home.

Climate change/sustainability (5 per cent, up two points) is a mixed bag for Government, with initiatives such as removing traffic from Dublin’s city centre, bottle recycling and cycle lanes attracting both positive and negative mentions.

Among those from farming backgrounds, climate change/sustainability is their number two issue, with housing their number one.

More prominent this wave are budget/spending (3 per cent, up two points) and taxes (3 per cent, up two points), driven by coverage of the very healthy state of our nation’s finances and speculation that taxes will be lowered in a pre-election budget.

A host of important issues (including healthcare/HSE, education, crime/gardaí, employment, Palestine/Israel conflict) are bouncing along the bottom of our Snapshot poll: still important to citizens but not topical enough to achieve more than 3 per cent of first mentions.

With an election on the near horizon, possibly following the October budget, we can expect the national conversation to change somewhat. Budget/spending, taxes and social policies are likely to come into the spotlight at budget time, however, housing is unlikely to be pushed out of the headlines any time soon.

Damian Loscher is president of Ipsos B&A