PoliticsAnalysis

Early general election speculation takes off after Minister announces October 1st budget date

Failure to go to electorate after October’s budget giveaways would be an act of political self-harm by Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party

Early election speculation after Irish budget date announced: Coalition leaders Taoiseach Simon Harris, Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan could say the Government has done its work after October's budget and call a general election. Photograph: Alan Betson
Early election speculation after Irish budget date announced: Coalition leaders Taoiseach Simon Harris, Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan could say the Government has done its work after October's budget and call a general election. Photograph: Alan Betson
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Thu Jul 04 2024 - 11:07

The announcement by Minister for Finance Jack Chambers that the budget is to be shifted forward by week – from the provisional date of October 8th to October 1st – has prompted a renewed flurry of speculation that the move is a prelude to an autumn general election.

The timetable, or so the speculation says, goes as follows: the (large giveaway) budget is delivered on October 1st; a “bikini” finance bill (covering just the bare essentials) and a quick social welfare bill giving effect to the budget’s provisions are passed through the Dáil on an expedited timetable over the following two or three weeks; the Dáil is then dissolved by October 18th or 25th, with a three- or four-week election campaign leading up to a polling day on November 8th or 15th.

All of that is eminently doable. Yes, yes, yes, Chambers assured people the Government will go its full term. The Taoiseach did the same when asked about it, as if the idea of having an early election had never crossed his mind; as if it was some sort of strange left-field idea promoted by people who spend too much time on the internet.

But, the thinking goes, it will be feasible for the Coalition in the wake of the budget to say: “Our work is done. The budget is our last significant political act as a Government. There is no point in hanging around for another three months. Now it’s over to the people to decide.”

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Any controversy over the timing of the election would be a day-one story: the election debate would quickly move on. An early election needs a reasonable public-facing reason, which the Government could supply as per the above.

Let us not forget that it’s only a few weeks since Michael McGrath told the National Economic Dialogue that the budget would be delivered as normal on October 8th. Dates can change, can’t they?

[ Budget 2025 to take place sooner than expected as Chambers insists autumn election not on cards ]

The real reasons for having an early election remain as blindingly obvious to the people inside the decision-making crucible at the top of Government as they are to the rest of us outside it.

Firstly, going to the very end means not alone that you are the mercy of events with no room to manoeuvre, but that you are doing it at the time of year (February/early March) that has proved singularly disadvantageous to the last two Fine Gael-led administrations.

Secondly, Sinn Féin, the Government’s chief rival, is coming off a disappointing local and European election performance in June. It is unsure of its base level of support, how many candidates it should run and where, what its message should be and whether it should portray itself as a sensible government-in-waiting or an option for radical, disruptive change.

The party will answer those question after an internal process, and it will regroup – as it did before. But allowing it the minimum time possible to recover is very clearly in the interests of the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael axis.

That is why it is in the interests of the Government to have an autumn election. That is why to do otherwise would be an act of political self-harm. That is why, with the budget now moved forward, actions speak louder than words.