Counting in the Midlands-North-West constituency was continuing in Castlebar, Co Mayo on Sunday evening, with a first count result expected later on Monday.

With no constituency-wide tally available, a clear image of the race for the constituency’s five seats will not emerge until the first count is announced. However, early tallying on Saturday from several count centres in the constituency put independent incumbent MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan in a strong position to return to Brussels for another term.

On Sunday, Mr Flanagan – an MEP since 2014 – said he was happy with the tallies he had seen so far.

“We’ll see what happens, but if someone said to me three or four weeks ago that the tallies were saying what they were saying, I’d be happy at this stage,” he said, speaking to reporters at the count centre. He warned that a recount was a possibility later in the week.

Castlebar native Ms Chamber told reporters on Sunday she was confident her party would win at least one seat

Maria Walsh (Fine Gael), Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil), Ciaran Mullooly (Independent Ireland), Nina Carberry (Fine Gael) and Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fáil) will all consider themselves in contention for European seats. Transfers will play a pivotal role.

Castlebar native Ms Chamber told reporters on Sunday she was confident her party would win at least one seat, and predicated she would “be in the mix” for the fifth and final seat.

“There appears to be a decline in the Sinn Féin support base that we weren’t expecting, certainly on the level that’s there, that’s shaking things up a little bit,” she said.

Fine Gael poll counters in Castlebar, buoyed by a steady performance in the local elections, were hopeful on Sunday the party could claim two of five seats up for grabs in the constituency, noting former jockey Ms Carberry is emerging as a transfer-friendly candidate.

There are a total of 27 candidates running for election in the Midlands-North-West

Initial projections placed Sinn Féin, on the other hand, at risk of losing out in the constituency. Mr Flanagan said the party would “struggle” to secure a seat in the constituency: “Which is extraordinary, when you look at some of the opinion polls from just over a year ago,” he said.

Ms Chambers attributed the slump in Sinn Féin support to “errors” in recent months – namely their messaging on immigration and housing. “They’ve tried to be all things to all people,” she said.

Pauline O’Reilly, Green Party candidate in Midlands-North-West, said while her tally numbers in her home constituency of Galway West were strong, the picture was much less promising elsewhere.

“[I’m] not expecting in any way to be a front-runner,” she said.

A total of 320 count staff were expected to work on the European ballots into the night on Sunday at the TF Royal Hotel, with the count in Castlebar to last until at least Wednesday. There are a total of 27 candidates running for election in the Midlands-North-West.

In 2019, Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness won the popular vote in the constituency by a significant majority, and was followed to Brussels by Mr Flanagan, Sinn Féin’s Matt Carty and Maria Walsh.

Colm Markey – who is not running for election – was co-opted into Ms McGuinness’s seat when she was named a European commissioner, while Sinn Féin’s Chris MacManus took Mr Carty’s seat following the latter’s election to the Dáil.

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