Simon Harris is poised to become the State’s youngest ever taoiseach, but will face a range of demands from within his own party and from Coalition partners as the Government edges closer to a general election.
Potential rivals to the Minister for Further and Higher Education fell away on Thursday amid a surge of endorsements from the Fine Gael parliamentary party.
While nominations for the post of Fine Gael leader remain open until Monday, the 37-year-old Wicklow TD looks unlikely to face competition, clearing the way for him to be installed as successor to Leo Varadkar on April 9th, when the Dáil reconvenes after the Easter break.
In the interim, Mr Harris must finalise his own back-room team, while internally there will be pressure to renew Fine Gael’s Cabinet team.
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One Fine Gael source said frankly: “I think there should be a full overhaul,” urging the new leader to capitalise on his momentum with a “real reshuffle” and also to focus on “bread and butter” issues for the party, including law and order and business.
A second said: “It is important that Fine Gael present a refreshed face to the public. A new team to offer their service.”
The view is not unanimous across the party. Some urged against “wholesale change for change sake” and others called for Mr Harris to be given time to bed in. However, with one Cabinet seat to fill – his own – colleagues believe Mr Harris could create up to another two vacancies.
Speculation in Government circles focused on Minister for Enterprise Simon Coveney, who failed to back Mr Harris despite the Wicklow TD being the only Cabinet Minister to back his failed leadership bid in 2017. “In Simon’s hour of need, Coveney was nowhere to be seen,” said one Coalition source.
Government chief whip and Minister of State Hildegarde Naughton was late to back Mr Harris, leading some to suggest she could make way. There was also speculation around the future of Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe, who also did not endorse Mr Harris, but his status within Government and role as Eurogroup president would likely protect him. Peter Burke, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill and Neale Richmond are among those tipped who could step up.
If installed as leader, Mr Harris is expected to meet before the Dáil returns with Coalition partners Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, which are likely to outline their firm view that the Government go as close to full term as possible, and seek reassurances from Mr Harris.
On Thursday, after confirming his intention to seek the Fine Gael leadership, Mr Harris said he would remain “committed to the programme for government we have in place”. He also ruled out any future coalition with Sinn Féin.
There will be pressure to introduce new faces into the ranks of junior ministers, while a new deputy leader is seen as likely, with Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys seen as a front-runner alongside Minister of State Jennifer Carroll MacNeill.
Ministers from other Coalition parties are watching closely to see how Mr Harris proceeds with what one said would be a “tightrope” of resetting Fine Gael and refreshing the party, but also ensuring their parties are not “passengers in a new project”.
A second Minister called for clearer decision-making, citing the “lax” timetable around the defeated family and care referendums, and for improved communication, especially on what the Government has achieved in health and on the economy. This Minister also called for increased focus on confidentiality in Government discussions, including an emphasis on Cabinet confidentiality.
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