After the shock waves had subsided in Leinster House and the texts stopped flying came the question: why now?
Leo Varadkar’s resignation has been described by his Fine Gael party colleagues as “a bolt from the blue” while Government Ministers said they were left in “total shock” upon hearing the bombshell news at the weekly meeting.
It would have been a jaw-dropper on any day of the week but the timing of his decision has left many people scratching their heads.
There were no ominous comments on the public airwaves from potential leadership rivals, no urgent whispers of a proper heave and no immediate crisis threatening to unseat him at any moment.
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In this context, the timing was somewhat bizarre.
It is now known, however, that Varadkar has been weighing up his options since Christmas. If he was to go, a source familiar with his thinking said, then he wanted to do it at a time that both allowed him to explain his reasons while also giving his successor a reasonable chance of success.
Going before the St Patrick’s Day trip to the White House was not considered a viable option.
On the other hand, leaving it until after a potential drubbing in the local elections would kick-start a process of political bloodletting in public that could have made his exit a far more embarrassing affair.
This is the picture that people close to him paint: a man who was worn down by the grind who wanted to decide his exit on his own terms.
That is not the full picture though.
Why did Leo Varadkar choose this moment to go?
The slow dimming of Varadkar’s appeal within Fine Gael began after the last general election in 2020, and his popularity has been declining since then.
By the summer of 2021 former Fine Gael TD Eoghan Murphy had become the third senior Varadkar loyalist to quit the party after Brian Hayes and Michael D’Arcy. They didn’t see a future in Fine Gael despite being seen as the Taoiseach’s right hand men.
The number of Fine Gael TDs elected in 2020 who have said they are stepping down at the next election has now reached 11, including Murphy. This rises to 12 if Varadkar decides not to stand again. With every announcement, the low level rumblings over Varadkar’s leadership became that bit louder.
Was this a Varadkar issue? Or were these politicians fleeing a sinking ship and a potentially lengthy stint on the opposition benches?
Then there was Covid-19.
Like many other politicians, the intense experience of steering the ship through a global pandemic appears to have taken its toll. By the time the office of Taoiseach rotated back to him, journalists were openly putting it to him that his heart didn’t seem to be in the job the way it had been before.
Upon announcing his decision not to stand in the next general election, Galway East TD Ciaran Cannon this week cited the toxicity of modern politics. If you make a cursory search for Leo Varadkar’s name on social media, the comments from faceless accounts can range from highly personalised insults to death threats. Social media has also made the pace of politics relentless.
And then came this month’s overwhelming rejection of the Government’s proposed changes to the Constitution in the family and care referendums, which yielded the highest ever percentage No vote in the history of the State.
Publicly, Varadkar said he accepted responsibility as head of the Government and that there would be a period of reflection.
Given the fact most of the opposition supported the proposals, they were not baying for his blood in any significant way. The situation within Fine Gael was far different, a number of sources have said. The finger of blame was being pointed at him and his political judgment has very much been a topic among senior Fine Gael politicians.
Given the threat posed by Sinn Féin, there is very little desire in Fine Gael to engage in a public process of tearing itself apart just weeks before the local and European elections. The proximity of those elections has clearly had a major bearing on his decision to go now.
“There are loyal colleagues and good friends contesting the local and European elections. I want to give them the best chance possible,” he said. “I think they will now have a better chance under a new leader.”
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