Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald says she will “reflect” on the latest Irish Times poll showing a sharp drop in support for her party and will seek to “correct things” in her party’s strategy.
Ms McDonald was reacting in London after the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B & opinion poll showed a slump in support for Sinn Féin to 28 per cent, a six-point drop since the last poll in the series in September.
She initially described the poll result as a “slight softening” in her party’s support, but appeared to accept that it was part of an established trend in declining Sinn Féin poll numbers.
Asked why her party’s numbers were falling, she told reporters at a Sinn Féin press conference in London that she was unable to give a “scientific answer straight off the bat”.
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She said her “hunch” was that it was “asking a lot” for the party to maintain the heights it had hit in polls in recent years, while she also suggested that her party needs to work on its political messaging to voters.
“For me the big thing is, are we accurately and consistently communicating to people... but also our plans ahead?” said Ms McDonald, before adding that it was not enough for Sinn Féin to simply point to where they believe the Government has failed.
“I think we are at the point now where people are asking: what will Sinn Féin do? They want more specifics.”
She said she and her party colleagues would “look at” The Irish Times poll, “take it away and analyse it”.
“We will always have an eye and an ear for where the public mood is, and of course we want to correct things and remain on a strong footing,” she said.
She indicated her party had no plans to “rethink” its approach to the issue of immigration, which has emerged recently as a concern for some voters.
Earlier, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said recent opinion polls suggest the outcome of the next election is “wide open”. He said the Government can be re-elected if the Coalition parties increase their support by a couple of percentage points.
The combined support of the three Coalition parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens – in The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll stood at 44 per cent.
During an interview on Newstalk, Mr Varadkar said “opinion polls don’t predict the outcome” of elections.
“They didn’t for the last two, and we see, all across Europe, elections turning out very differently to the way the opinion polls say,” he said.
However, he added: “Leaving that aside, I think if you do look at the polls, and not just the one today – there’s been three in the last two weeks... they say that it’s wide open and it’s all to play for.”
The Taoiseach said Sinn Féin’s support is “somewhere in the high 20s – still doing well, but not as well as they were doing previously”.
“The combined support of the Government parties, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, the Greens together – [is] well into the 40s,” he added.
Mr Varadkar said about 50 per cent is needed to form a Government, and he believes the current Coalition can be re-elected if it manages to find “another couple of per cent each”.
He said this can be done by “focusing on the issues that people care about the most, whether it’s the cost-of-living crisis, whether it’s housing, whether it’s healthcare, managing migration, better law and order, all of those things”.
The state of the parties in today’s poll, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is: Sinn Féin, 28 per cent (down six); Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (no change); Fine Gael, 19 per cent (up one); Green Party, 5 per cent (up two); Labour, 4 per cent (up one); Social Democrats, 4 per cent (up two); Solidarity-People Before Profit, 2 per cent (up one); Aontú, 1 per cent (no change); and Independents, 17 per cent (down one).
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,200 adults at 120 sampling points across all constituencies between February 2nd and 6th. Respondents were interviewed at their own homes. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
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