Four years since 2020 election, Sinn Féin support slumps and a quarter of voters remain undecided

It is precisely four years to the day since the 2020 General Election.

At the time voters went to the polls, Covid-19 barely featured on the radar as a mysterious virus in China.

It would be weeks until the first case of the virus was detected in Ireland.

The State pension age was the surprise big issue of the election with Sinn Féin promising to lower it to 65 and the party won support among young voters with its criticism of its rivals’ housing policies.

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Mary Lou McDonald’s party won the largest share of the popular vote (though not the most Dáil seats with Fianna Fáil taking one more).

In the teeth of the pandemic, a historic coalition between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party was formed that summer.

It was not until January 2022 that almost all the remaining public health restrictions in Ireland were lifted.

The following month Russia invaded Ukraine sending energy prices soaring, contributing to the rising cost of living and sparking a refugee accommodation crisis in Ireland.

All the while the pre-existing crisis in housing continued notwithstanding the Government’s insistence on progress in tackling it.

It is fair to say that there has been some turmoil since voters last cast ballots in a general election.

Sinn Féin saw its support in opinion polls rise well above 30 per cent over the intervening years.

However, as Political Editor Pat Leahy reports, the main take-away from today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll is a slump in Sinn Féin’s support to its lowest level in three years.

Its support, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, stands at 28 per cent, a six-point drop since the most recent poll in September.

With a general election due within the next year, the results of the poll will cause alarm in Sinn Féin, long presumed to be the stand-out favourite to lead the next government.

The Coalition parties do not have too much cause to celebrate.

Sinn Féin still has a healthy lead over Fianna Fáil, which is on 20 per cent (no change) and Fine Gael 19 per cent (up one).

The Green Party is on 5 per cent (up two).

Here’s the full results in charts.

The Coalition’s combined 44 per cent would not see it returned to office without the help of other parties and/or independents.

In his analysis, Leahy explores the possible reasons for the fall in support for Sinn Féin just days after the party triumphantly occupied the First Minister’s office in Stormont.

He also writes that the poll results “throw the race to lead the next government wide open”.

Sinn Féin got 24.5 per cent of the vote this day four years ago, ahead of Fianna Fáil on 22.2 per cent and Fine Gael on 20.9 per cent. The Green Party won 7.1 per cent.

Our latest poll shows that Sinn Féin is still above its 2020 election support levels and the Coalition parties are below theirs.

It is somewhat remarkable, given all that has happened since, that the support levels are not radically different from this day four years ago.

Politicians are fond of saying that the only poll that matters is on election day.

June’s local and European elections will be the first real test of the parties’ support in four years.

With 25 per cent of voters undecided, the results of today’s poll suggest there will be a hotly contested battle ahead.

Best Reads

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A State funeral for Bruton will take place on Saturday.

Green Party leader and Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan has said that bans on private cares and commercial vehicles travelling through Dublin city centre will be in place by August. Our Dublin Editor Olivia Kelly has the details.

A vacant building in Co Kildare has been damaged in the latest suspected anti-immigrant arson attack.

On the business pages, Ellen O’Regan outlines how the Parliamentary Budget Office has identified a high degree of uncertainty in Budget 2024 cost estimates.

Playbook

Dáil proceedings kick off at 9am when Minister for Enterprise Simon Coveney will respond to Parliamentary Questions.

Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe is up next at 10.30am.

Leaders’ Questions is at noon followed by questions on policy or legislation.

Government Business in the afternoon is debates on the Financial Services and Pensions Ombudsman (Amendment) Bill 2023 and the Coroners (Amendment) Bill 2024.

TDs have an opportunity to raise Topical Issues from 8.30pm.

The Seanad will be debating the legislation to create the new office of directly elected mayor of Limerick in the afternoon from 1.15pm.

The Dáil’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) will quiz representatives of the Garda Síochána Ombudsman Commission (GSOC) from 9.30am with the timeline for processing complaints about gardaí expected to feature.

The Committee on Public Petitions will consider a number of petitions including one on re-opening hospital emergency departments in the mid-west region and another on electric scooter safety. The committee meets at 1.30pm.

Minister for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media Catherine Martin will outline estimates of her Department’s spending in 2024 when she appears before a committee at 1.30pm.

Here are the full Dáil, Seanad and Committee schedules.

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