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As 2024 gets into gear, it’s clear that the political year ahead will be unrelenting

Growing consensus that autumn seems the most likely window for the country to go to the polls

Before long, the referendums and the St Patrick’s Day pilgrimages will be behind us, as will Fine Gael’s ardfheis in April, and the local and European elections in early summer will beckon. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire

Tue Jan 16 2024 - 07:25

It has been (a mere) 33 days since the last edition of this political digest – but we’re back, as the political system rouses itself from its midwinter slumber. And as 2024 gets into gear, it’s clear that the political year ahead will be unrelenting. With the Dáil back tomorrow, the Government finds itself under renewed pressure on immigration – the accommodation crisis is just where it left it before the break, but with the added pressure brought by more widespread and febrile protests, and a string of arson attacks. We lead the paper on the pressure cooker in Roscrea today.

Before long we will be barrelling headlong into the first vote in a year of elections, with the referendums on family and care scheduled in little more than seven weeks – and at this juncture, the nerves in Government are palpable.

The groundwork continues for bigger elections, with Fine Gael deciding on its candidate for the signifier seat of Dublin Bay South, the constituency containing some of the wealthiest areas in the State, and where it once had two TDs – but following Eoghan Murphy’s resignation and the subsequent byelection, it now has none. James Geoghegan, who came second to Labour’s Ivana Bacik in that byelection, was selected on Monday night.

Selection conventions will continue in the weeks ahead, including for European elections, where Oireachtas members such as Lisa Chambers, Josepha Madigan, Barry Cowen, Regina Doherty and potentially a host of others are looking for nominations.

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Before long, the referendums and the St Patrick’s Day pilgrimages will be behind us (but will a deal on public pay be in place?), as will Fine Gael’s ardfheis in April, and the local and European elections in early summer will beckon. In the meantime, the Government’s new plan for migrant accommodation will take shape, while Ministers will be asked to get stuck into what can be done before the next general election, as the economic sands continue to shift. There is a growing consensus that the autumn seems the most likely window for the country to go to the polls – expect the chronic challenges of health and housing to accompany the new hot button issues of migration and law and order, while climate policy continues to stalk the Opposition as a potential fault line. The Opposition will jockey for position and Sinn Féin in particular will hope not to stumble – with a historic chance to close out 2024 in government on both sides of the Border in the offing.

All that without stretching ourselves beyond this jurisdiction – just across the Border strikes planned for Thursday are overshadowing efforts to get Stormont back up and running.

And then there’s the US and UK general elections (as well as dozens more around the world), which could have profound ramifications here, regionally and globally. It’s enough to make you wonder if another 33 days off isn’t needed to prepare yourself. No such luck, unfortunately – 2024 is upon us: strap yourself in.

Best reads

Freya McClements on those strikes, and those talks, in Northern Ireland.

Fintan O’Toole on the unvetted single male Irish emigrant.

Miriam Lord meets – or at least encounters – the Burkes (Miriam will be back on more familiar ground in Leinster House from tomorrow).

Can industrial estates help solve the housing crisis or is it primed to be another regeneration flop? The debate is on.

It’s cold outside. But for the first time in ages, energy prices are dropping. Here’s what you need to know about it.

Eoin Burke Kennedy is rubbing shoulders with the one per centers in Davos (where he will be joined by the Taoiseach tomorrow).

Playbook

This morning’s Cabinet meeting starts the week and marks the resumption of the political calendar after the Christmas and New Year break. The tribunal of inquiry into the Defence Forces, prompted by the Women of Honour and others, tops the billing – here’s a full run down of what Ministers are expected to discuss today.

Messrs Donohoe and McGrath are in Brussels for the Eurogroup meeting – our correspondent Naomi O’Leary will be on the case.

Away from the Leinster House campus, events in Roscrea will be high on the political and news agenda, while the Chinese premier, Li Qiang, arrives in Dublin for a two-day visit. Read Denis Staunton’s analysis of the trip here.

No Dáil until tomorrow – and there’s just one committee meeting in public today, with the committee on assisted dying meeting with groups representing those with disabilities.

One to watch for the week(s) ahead: word reaches us that the RTÉ board’s report on Toy Show the Musical and the broadcaster’s report (by McCann Fitzgerald) into severance schemes are near completion.

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