Voters North and South disagree on potential economic benefits from a united Ireland

Just over half of all voters in the Republic say that a united Ireland would be “costly in the short-term but beneficial in the long-term”, according to the latest research on the topic.

But views across the Border differ substantially, with just half of that number (26 per cent) sharing the view that unity would have short-term costs and long-term benefits.

[ North & South: Read all of the articles in the series ]

Respondents in Northern Ireland from a Protestant background are especially sceptical of the economic benefits of unity, with 54 per cent saying that unity would be “costly in the short-term and not beneficial in the long-term”.

Elsewhere, the findings display a sharp division between North and South over the economic benefits or otherwise of a united Ireland in the future.

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In the South, there is an expectation that unity will come with costs, divided unequally. In the Republic, for example, almost a quarter of voters (24 per cent) say that the North would benefit more than the South from unity; in Northern Ireland, just 10 per cent share that view. Seven per cent of respondents in the South believe that the South would benefit more than the North – but 21 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland agree.

More than a quarter of all Northern voters (26 per cent) say that “both the North and South would benefit equally”; in the Republic, that figure is 36 per cent, down five points since last year.

[ Northern Protestants pessimistic on benefits of Irish unity ]

But the view of the consequences of unity in the Republic is broadly more positive than in the North, a finding in tune with the broad support for the Irish unity seen in the polls in recent days. It also shows there may be a willingness among some substantial numbers of voters to shoulder the costs of unity. In Northern Ireland, voters from a Protestant background – who are overwhelmingly against a united Ireland – are much more likely to see negative economic consequences.

Among “others” however – those who identify as being from neither a Catholic nor a Protestant background and who are likely to be a key “swing” group in any future referendum – opinions are much more mixed.

About a fifth of say that North and South would benefit equally, and a fifth say they would lose out equally. Almost another fifth (18 pert cent) say that the North will benefit more than the South, while slightly fewer (15 per cent) say the South would benefit more. A quarter (26 per cent) don’t know.

[ North and South differ on benefits of unity ]

The opinion polls are part of the North and South series, a research collaboration between ARINS and The Irish Times. ARINS, Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South, is a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the Keough-Naughton Institute for Irish Studies at the University of Notre Dame. This is the second year of the collaboration between The Irish Times and ARINS.

The simultaneous, identical polls were taken by Ipsos B&A in the Republic and Ipsos in Northern Ireland, who conducted in-home interviews with over 1,000 voters in each jurisdiction. The margin of error in each is estimated to be +/-3.1 per cent.

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