An extra seat for the Midlands-North West European Parliament constituency has ratcheted up political chatter over who will put their name forward for election next June – but who is likely to throw their hat in the ring?
Dublin (4 seats)
Much of the focus in Dublin will be on the Sinn Féin ticket, with the party unexpectedly losing Lynn Boylan’s seat in 2019. Boylan is expected to put her name forward again, with suggestions that Senator Fintan Warfield will also seek the nomination in a two-candidate strategy that will likely be mirrored in other constituencies.
Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews will seek re-election, with a running mate seen as unlikely. Whether Fine Gael runs one or two candidates remains to be seen. Frances Fitzgerald’s retirement has sparked a flurry of interest from prominent Fine Gaelers and current Oireachtas members, including Minister of State Josepha Madigan, Dublin South West’s Colm Brophy, Senators Regina Doherty and Barry Ward and others. There has been some suggestions that Richard Bruton could forestall his retirement, whereas former TDs Noel Rock and Kate O’Connell have been mentioned.
Clare Daly will run again, as will the Greens’ Ciarán Cuffe.
Labour is expected to run Senator Annie Hoey – recently named the party’s Dublin spokeswoman – while the Social Democrats will run a candidate (the party is also considering running in the other constituencies), although they aren’t expected to tap their ranks of TDs.
Midlands-North West (5 seats)
The name on everybody’s lips is that of Barry Cowen, whose Laois-Offaly constituency has been relocated into the expanded constituency. The strength of the Cowen dynasty and his own experience mean it would be hard to look past the former cabinet minister, and he is said to have the backing of a chunk of the parliamentary party. A victory would give the Government a headache in the form of a byelection. Donegal-based Niall Blaney is known to be interested, but Cowen’s most likely running mate is Lisa Chambers, the Mayo-based Senator who has made no secret of her European ambitions and who would bring some much-needed gender balance to the emerging Fianna Fáil European slate.
Mairead McGuinness, Ireland’s commissioner, has put paid to speculation she could seek a seat, so the way would seem to be clear for that party’s sitting MEPs Maria Walsh and Colm Markey to run again, as will Sinn Féin’s Chris MacManus, focusing on the western half of the sprawling constituency. He will likely get a running mate from the North Leinster/Monaghan area.
The Independent brand is strong here. Luke Ming Flanagan is expected to run again and it’s worth watching Michael Fitzmaurice - although his primary focus is said to be the Dáil, he has been vocal about the need for new momentum in rural politics. That may find some expression in the European race. Green Party chair Pauline O’Reilly will be her party’s candidate.
[ Mairead McGuinness will not contest next European electionsOpens in new window ]
South (5 seats)
With the exception of the retiring Deirdre Clune, all other MEPs are expected to run again, with Seán Kelly likely to be paired with a Cork running mate. Senators Tim Lombard and Jerry Buttimer have been mentioned, although the latter would have to forsake the remainder of his term as Seanad Cathaoirleach if successful Michael Creed, who has said he will retire as a TD at the next general election, would bring heft to the ticket as a former minister and near four-decade political veteran. Fine Gael ran three candidates in 2019, with a third – if they were to come – likely to come from the Eastern section of the constituency. Sources have suggested Wexford TD and former minister Paul Kehoe, whose outcome from the Dáil constituency review was not straightforward, may be a runner. An all-male ticket would doubtlessly attract negative comment, which may cause yet more recalculation.
Sinn Féin Senator Paul Gavan is a name being linked with a European run. Sources in the party say two candidates will run, but no other names are bubbling to the surface just yet.
Billy Kelleher will be the standard-bearer for Fianna Fáil. Carlow-Kilkenny’s John McGuinness has been mentioned as a running mate. Senator Malcolm Byrne ran before, but the constituency review for Dáil seats has been good for him. The loss of Laois-Offaly, where the Fianna Fáil vote is strong, makes things more complex for a second candidate in the more easterly part of the constituency, but no Tipperary or western option is immediately apparent, with neither Jackie Cahill nor Timmy Dooley thought to be interested. Gender is a factor here too, and Fianna Fáil sources expect Carlow-Kilkenny’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor will not be interested. Councillors Deirdre Cullen (Kilkenny) and Siobhán Ambrose (Tipperary) have been mentioned in dispatches.
It’s expected high-profile Independent Mick Wallace will run again, as will the Greens’ sitting MEP Grace O’Sullivan – while there is some speculation that former Labour leader Alan Kelly could seek a return to Brussels.
