Like everything else, the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis is not what it once was.
Still, the mood at Saturday’s gathering was cautiously upbeat. The party is, after all, back in Government and reckons it has an each-way bet on returning after the next election (more of that later). Preparations for next year’s local elections are well advanced, with scores of candidates selected and in the field. True, the polls aren’t great, but they’re not disastrous either.
Like all Fianna Fáil gatherings, there were many who miss the days when the ardfheis was a monster event, attended by thousands from among the Soldiers of Destiny ranks, where you could almost smell the power along with the Brylcreem, porter and cigarette smoke.
But they also know that the resuscitation of the organisation under Micheál Martin is a political miracle of sorts. Martin’s televised leaders’ address on Saturday night was warmly, if hardly ecstatically, received by delegates. Lacking any new policy announcements — in a Coalition, such things have to be agreed in advance — it was mostly a restatement of the Government’s achievements as seen from inside.
On housing, one of the speech’s central themes, Martin’s declaration that “for the first time in years, we have started to make strides forward” is sort of an acknowledgement that previous declarations of progress were largely empty.
It sat with a theme encapsulated by the repeated phrase, “we are not there yet” — a nod towards the only argument possible for an incumbent Government, that it has done a lot, but has more to do. That will be the theme of Fianna Fáil’s pitch at the next election.
Will Martin stay around for that? They hope he will and many of them think he will. He says he will. So he will, won’t he? The doubt lingers, though.
And what of the choice that may face him — a coalition with mortal enemies Sinn Féin, if the numbers dictate it?
Martin made two legitimate points. First, the re-election of the present Government, or another potential coalition involving Fianna Fáil and not involving Sinn Féin, were possibilities.
Then he said there were great policy differences between the two parties. This, he added, would preclude a coalition between them. What Martin did not address, though, was that policies can be fungible after an election. Would he refuse to even talk to Sinn Féin? In 2020, he ruled out Sinn Féin not just in policy terms, but also morally. Will he do so again? Martin’s exchanges with journalists on the issue became a little spiky; he was critical of the “premise” of some questions and their narrow framing. So best let his words speak for themselves:
“First of all, the electoral situation is dynamic. The premise behind the question is that somehow everyone will have to make up their mind whether they coalesce with Sinn Féin. I don’t believe that is the premise on which we should discuss the next general election. Because actually I think, it’s very open. And the current three parties in Government could get enough votes to form the next government, that’s very much on, clearly can’t be ruled out.
“And you know my views on opinion polls, but even if you take the opinion polls, that can’t be ruled out. There are other parties, like the Social Democrats and the Labour Party, [and] there could be up to a dozen more independents from what you might call loosely the centre. [And] You’ll have a further potentially eight or nine independents on the far left.
“Sinn Féin says it wants to go into government with the far left first and it doesn’t want to go into government with Fianna Fáil and it doesn’t want to go into government with Fine Gael. We have very, very fundamental issues in terms of the policy platform of Sinn Féin.”
Pressed on whether he would rule out any coalition with Sinn Fein before the next election — as he did in 2020 — Martin replied: “Our stance is to go into government with like-minded parties whose policy platforms, and the Fianna Fáil policy platform and our focus will be on housing in particular to continue the progress that we are making on housing ... so it’s policy for me and we don’t align with Sinn Féin on many policies from the European Union right across to the economy, pro-enterprise, etc. So I think there’s enough parties there, the electoral situation is wide open.”
So that’s a no to Sinn Féin, then. Probably.
“You can continue to ask the question,” Martin scolded the assembled journalists. It seems certain that they will.
