Officials are quietly working on what could be the most widespread overhaul of the State’s system for receiving those fleeing the war in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. While the plan does not yet have political sign-off, if implemented it would go significantly beyond previous efforts to tighten up the conditions being offered to those fleeing the war – known as beneficiaries of temporary protection (BoTP).
The most eye-catching measure, reported by The Irish Times first last week, would see accommodation offered only on a time-limited basis. But papers given to the Cabinet subcommittee on the Ukraine crisis earlier this month suggest a much wider overhaul of the system. They describe in detail what we all know already: that accommodating 73,500 BoTPs has become a chronic policy challenge for the State, causing “significant policy and operational challenges across Government” and being delivered on an “ad hoc” basis.
The paper outlines how the “current approach [is] unsustainable and unsuitable”, how it provokes “equity concerns vis-á-vis Irish and EU citizens and other migrant cohorts” and how it “does not promote independence and integration” with hotels “not suitable on a long-term basis for children”.
Meanwhile, as has been clear for months, the geographic concentration is massively lopsided with “increased pressure on services” as it is “not possible to manage a planned distribution given accommodation challenges”. The verdict on much-vaunted plans for refurbishment and modular accommodation is stinging, finding they are “not at a scale to meet demand and ultimately limited in terms of overall scale of challenge”.
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Meanwhile, it warns that “social cohesion/integration challenges [are] likely to continue and potentially grow”.
There have been gloomy predictions of bed shortfalls amount to tens of thousands for months, but the capacity of the system to and scramble to find accommodation has in some ways allowed its coping mechanism to become its own worst enemy – the fact the system has not fallen over has meant underlying problems have not been addressed.
The paper describes a major attempt to change that. In addition to time-limiting accommodation, increased efforts to communicate with those overseas who may come are planned alongside “transition arrangements” for those already here. Capacity targets for different accommodation types which would see some grow and others shrink are also planned.
The nature of accommodation would likely change, with large-scale reception centres replacing hotels and other serviced accommodation – the first indication of what this might look like is in Wicklow and Laois, where hundreds of Ukrainians will be accommodated in cabins within “marquee-type structures”. The officials argue that this approach would also better prepare those Ukrainians who are going to stay permanently even after the war.
A diagram given to Ministers shows that those arriving would be sent to “welcome centres”, and once an initial time period elapses, either given a pledged home or asked to privately source their own accommodation. While the document appears to suggest that those already here and in contracted accommodation – ie hotels and the like – could see this phased out over time, Government sources said this was not under consideration.
The paper baldly sketches out that the problem is not going anywhere – the flow of refugees seeking a bed is continuing at around 550 per week, but the pipeline of suitable accommodation is “narrowing significantly”.
The overriding policy architecture is not going to change – EU member states have voted to extend the Temporary Protection directive until March 2025, which allows Ukrainians the right to work, travel, claim benefits and be accommodated in the bloc.
The official verdict on Ireland’s offering is that it is “significantly different to approach in other European countries” with “high State involvement and wide supports (including income and accommodation”. This will be the rationale offered for any changes if they come to pass – that Ireland is an outlier and has been forced to align more tightly with less generous regimes.
The proposals, which were developed by officials in the Department of the Taoiseach, will be assessed as part of drafting a new memo for the Government.
The Coalition will have to win the public argument then with humanitarian NGOs that dramatically changing the benefits is proportional and necessary. But it must identify some path away from a situation which is both chronic and unsustainable, in its own verdict.
