Northern Ireland protocol deal expected as von der Leyen and Sunak to discuss ‘complex challenges’

The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are to meet in the UK on Monday, with the two expected to announce a deal to resolve the Northern Ireland protocol dispute.

Talks between the European Union and United Kingdom over how to resolve the dispute over the North’s post-Brexit arrangements have stretched on since the British side became unhappy with the deal after it came into force at the start of 2021.

In a joint statement, Dr Von der Leyen and Mr Sunak said that they “agreed to continue their work in person towards shared, practical solutions for the range of complex challenges around the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland”.

“President von der Leyen will therefore meet with the Prime Minister in the UK tomorrow,” the statement read. The meeting is expected to take place in Berkshire.

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The achievement of a deal between the two sides is expected to be the subject of the visit, with both Brussels and the London government keen to put the bad blood of Brexit behind them and prioritise good relations due to the war in Ukraine.

The two leaders are expected to meet in the early afternoon, and hold a press conference some time later if a deal is finalised. Mr Sunak is expected to hold talks with his cabinet, and deliver a statement to the House of Commons.

Diplomats representing the 27 EU member states are expected to be briefed on the details of the deal on Monday.

A push for an agreement was given a new boost when Mr Sunak took power in October, and the two sides reached a breakthrough on customs data sharing last month.

But Mr Sunak may struggle to convince hardliners in his Conservative party to back the deal, while the Democratic Unionist Party have said it must meet seven difficult tests for them to agree to restore powersharing in Northern Ireland.

The unionist party has refused to return to Stormont until their concerns over the arrangements are addressed.

Since the United Kingdom left the EU, the North has remained in line with EU rules on goods in order to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But there have been complaints about aspects of the deal, including about barriers to trade or broader economic disalignment between Northern Ireland and the island of Britain.

The hardline pro-Brexit wing of the Conservative party has also objected to the role of the European Court of Justice as an arbiter of disputes related to the deal, seeing it as contrary to British sovereignty.

The coming days are expected to reveal whether Mr Sunak can convince them the deal resolves their concerns.

Significant progress

Earlier on Sunday, Tánaiste Micheal Martin said that “very significant progress” has been made in negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland protocol, but declined to say whether an agreement is likely to be concluded in the coming days.

There were suggestions in the British media on Sunday morning that a deal may be concluded this week, but Mr Martin was cautious and said that negotiators should be given space “not just to agree a deal but to land a deal”.

Asked on RTÉ’s This Week programme if he believed a deal could win the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Mr Martin said: “I hope so.”

Mr Martin sounded a cautiously optimistic note, but declined to be drawn on any specific timelines for a possible deal, saying only that the will was there in both camps to finalise an agreement “in a quicker timeline than a medium-term timeline”.

He said that there was “strong trust in relationships [that was] not there before”.

Mr Martin was also asked about reports of opposition in the Conservative party, which centres around the former prime minister Boris Johnson, and cautioned against “playing politics with the situation”.

“It’s far too serious,” he said.

On Saturday, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that talks on reforming the Northern Ireland protocol were “inching towards a conclusion” this weekend.

European Court of Justice

Meanwhile, a key UK Conservative party backbencher has said that conservative Brexiteers and the DUP would be unable to back a Northern Ireland deal that left any role for the European Court of Justice, setting prime minister Rishi Sunak on an apparent collision course with his parliamentary party.

With ministers saying Sunak was “on the cusp of a deal” to change post-Brexit arrangements in the region, Mark Francois, who chairs the influential European Research Group (ERG) of Tory MPs, warned of chaos if the prime minister tried to push through an unsatisfactory plan.

He added that this would be “incredibly unwise” without a formal vote in the Commons, something to which the government has still refused to commit.

Mr Sunak used an interview with the Sunday Times to pledge that any proposals would “tick all of those boxes” in terms of concern from the DUP.

Dominic Raab, the justice secretary and deputy prime minister, said the government was “on the cusp of a deal” with the EU.

“There’s real progress,” he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme. “We want to make sure all the pieces are in place. But I think hopefully there will be good news in a matter of days, not weeks,” he said.

While refusing to go into details, Mr Raab effectively confirmed reports that the vital issue of how to deal with goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK would have an “intelligence-based approach” intended to minimise checks, with most items processed via a light-touch “green light” system.

“Those are the kinds of things it’s been well known that we’ve been pushing for,” he said, adding that this would greatly reduce the oversight of the European court of justice (ECJ), which the DUP and ERG want removed altogether from Northern Ireland affairs.

“If we can scale back some of the regulatory checks that apply and some of the paperwork that applies, that would in itself involve a significant, a substantial, scaling back for the role of ECJ,” Raab said.

As part of this, any new rules that affected the EU’s single market – to which Northern Ireland is directly attached because of the lack of a trade border with the Republic of Ireland – would require a final say from the devolved assembly at Stormont.

Also speaking on the Sky show, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, said it would be vital for Labour to back Sunak on this. He said: “If he does get a deal then credit to him, because this is hugely important for the national interests of our country and for the people of Northern Ireland.” - Additional reporting Guardian