Northern Ireland protocol: Expectations grow EU and UK are on brink of deal

There are growing expectations that the British government and the EU are on the brink of a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol. EU diplomats are due to gather in Brussels while British prime minister Rishi Sunak travelled to Northern Ireland on Thursday night for meetings with political leaders.

Senior Irish Government sources were cautious on the timing of any announcement but acknowledged that Dublin had been in close contact with the European Commission and that an agreement was expected. Officials said that they had not seen a legal text yet.

The momentum towards a deal is clearly growing. EU ambassadors have been called to a meeting with EU chief negotiator Maroš Šefčovič in Brussels on Friday, after Mr Šefčovič meets the British foreign secretary James Cleverly and the Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris.

It is expected that Mr Sunak will seek to gain support for any agreement on the protocol but there were no signs that the DUP will soften its position. Former deputy leader Nigel Dodds, who now sits in the House of Lords, told a European newspaper that any checks on goods or role for the European Court of Justice (ECJ) would mean that the DUP would reject the deal and continue to boycott Stormont.

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It is widely expected that the agreement will eliminate the vast majority of checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain by using a system of red and green lanes, with the green lane – where there will be no checks – reserved for goods which are only intended for the North. However, the EU will have some oversight on this system, and the ECJ is expected to retain some jurisdiction over the protocol. The original text of the agreement is not expected to change, sources said.

“The negotiations are finding solutions,” said one senior Irish Government source. “The work isn’t concluded but it’s well-advanced.”

Asked if a deal had been concluded, another senior Dublin source said: “Nearly but not there yet.”

The Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin is expected to speak to Northern leaders by telephone before he travels to the Munich Security Conference this weekend, where he will meet Mr Cleverly and other figures on the margins. The conference is also being attended by Mr Sunak who is expected to discuss the protocol in Munich with French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

The European Commission and Downing Street both said that talks were “ongoing”.

“Whilst talks to the EU are ongoing, ministers continue to engage with relevant stakeholders to ensure any solution fixes the practical problems on the ground, meets our overarching objectives, and safeguards Northern Ireland’s place in the UK’s internal market,” a British government spokesperson said in a statement.

Mr Šefčovič has been in Washington this week where Northern Ireland and the prospect of a deal were among the topics of discussion with top officials.

In a social media message, Connecticut senator and US Senate foreign relations committee member Chris Murphy thanked Mr Šefčovič for “coming by the office today to talk about the status of talks on the Northern Ireland Protocol.”

“It’s time to get this done,” Mr Murphy wrote. “The EU is willing to cut a good deal. The UK needs to get this done.”