The other parties were in and out; after more than an hour, the DUP still had not emerged from the hotel on the outskirts of Belfast where they were due to meet the UK prime minister Rishi Sunak on Friday.
Sunak’s arrival, on Thursday evening, had prompted increased speculation that a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol was imminent.
Certainly, there is a real sense that momentum is building and the prime ministerial visit to Northern Ireland was a sign that the choreography of the end-game is coming together: speak to the Northern parties on Friday, head to Europe for final UK-EU talks over the weekend, all in time for the announcement of a potential deal at the beginning of the week.
More than two hours after the previous meeting had finished, the DUP was still closeted inside the hotel
On Friday morning, Alliance went first, followed by the SDLP, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and then Sinn Féin. All said no deal had been reached and detail was “scant”, as SDLP leader Colum Eastwood put it, adding that Sunak was “very careful not to get into too much detail until a deal is done and I suppose that’s fair enough”.
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If anything this lack of detail adds to that sense of momentum and shows an awareness of the need to protect the text from the sort of public unpicking that has derailed potential agreements in the North previously.
As to timeline, there was near unanimity that a deal was close — potentially in the next few days — though the unionist parties were more cautious, saying it could be a matter of weeks.
Yet as time went on, there was still no DUP. More than two hours after the previous meeting had finished, the party was still closeted inside the hotel; as one veteran of many talks processes remarked, there was clearly something going on.
The party had met Sunak the previous evening and, as well as a further meeting, discussions were understood to be going on between the DUP and senior officials.
The other meetings notwithstanding, it was clear it was the DUP the prime minister had really come to see, and no wonder, as it is that party whose opposition to the protocol has produced a boycott of the North’s political institutions — leaving the Assembly or Executive unable to function.
Sunak does not need the DUP’s support but would undoubtedly prefer the party to accept the deal and go back into Stormont rather than prolong the current political stasis, potentially indefinitely.
Northern Ireland protocol: how close are we to a deal?
There were two theories doing the rounds: either he had come to show the DUP the draft text of the deal and tell them to take it or leave it, or he wanted to be able to take their position to Europe to give him more leverage in the final days of negotiations. Certainly, the morning had all the appearance of negotiating with the DUP; it was equally plausible that the prime minister was not listening to their concerns, but simply seeking to give the appearance of having done so. It would not be the first time the DUP has been betrayed by a British prime minister.
Only when the prime ministerial motorcade departed did the DUP emerge. Flanked by colleagues, party leader Jeffrey Donaldson began by reading a statement, almost as if announcing a deal.
“Clearly this is a big moment,” said Donaldson. “The next generation of Northern Ireland, of its people, requires us all, collectively, to use our best efforts, particularly the prime minister and the European Commission president, to get these issues resolved, to get to a place where the political institutions can be restored. The decisions that will be taken by the prime minister and by the European Commission will either consign Northern Ireland to more division or they will clear a path towards healing and to the restoration of the political institutions.”
In so doing he was placing the responsibility for the reformation of Stormont — effectively, for Northern Ireland’s political future — not in the hands of the DUP, but in those of London and Brussels.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson emphasised on Friday that the DUP will make its decision based on the final text
That said, in his nod to the wider context, the choice between division and healing and his acknowledgement of the importance of the decisions that are to come, there was the potential ground for compromise.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed; Donaldson emphasised on Friday that the DUP will make its decision based on the final text, and it remains perfectly possible that a deal will be reached but the party will not go back into Stormont, with all the consequences that will bring.
If it does, it will have to weather strong criticism from grassroots loyalism and Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice, with all the potential this has to damage them in the council elections in May.
For months, the DUP has been able to watch and wait; soon, it will be decision time.
