So how is all this going to work?
In the Civil Service, so the joke goes, the first question officials pose when asked to respond to a situation is: what did we do last time?
The swapping of the top job between two old rivals, now Coalition allies but still (let’s not forget) future electoral rivals, the related shuffling of the Cabinet pack, including the Finance and Public Expenditure posts – none of that has happened before. This is novel territory. There’s no playbook.
Yeah, yeah, don’t panic, say those in know, some of whom will be responsible for making the whole thing run smoothly. Protocol-wise, Saturday will be run largely like a transition between two entirely different governments, separated by an election result. Remember, the old government remains in office – albeit in a caretaker capacity – until the new government takes over. The country is never without a government.
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So Micheál Martin will resign on Saturday morning, by going to Áras an Uachtaráin and offering his resignation to the President, who will accept it. At that moment, all the Ministers in the Government are also deemed by constitutional rule to have resigned – but, like the Taoiseach, all remain in office until their successors are appointed. Later, the Dáil will elect a new taoiseach: under the Coalition agreement reached two and a half years ago, Fianna Fáil and Green TDs will support Leo Varadkar, just as Fine Gael and Green TDs voted for Martin in 2020.
...the longer the Government goes on, the nearer it will be to the next election, in which, like it or not, government TDs and candidates will be rivals
Having travelled to the Aras to be formally appointed, the new taoiseach will return to Government Buildings and select his ministers. After they are approved by another Dáil vote, they will travel to the Áras (busy day out there), and then – by tradition – hold the first meeting of the new Cabinet there.
So much for the protocol and ceremonial niceties. More difficult questions for the Coalition leaders involve the management of the internal politics of the reshuffle, the need to give the (new but still the same) Government fresh impetus while sticking to the agreed five-year programme for government and the inescapable fact that the longer the Government goes on, the nearer it will be to the next election, in which, like it or not, government TDs and candidates will be rivals. Those, not the folderol of Saturday’s ceremonials, are the real challenges facing this unusual administration ahead.
Managing the government
Whatever you may think of his achievements in office, Micheál Martin clearly demonstrated that he was able to run the government – to be its chief spokesman, to manage inevitable dissent and division so that it did not threaten the stability of the administration and to oversee across departments (some more so than others) the implementation of the agreed programme for government.
One of the principal tools in this exercise has been the system of Cabinet committees, which debate policy and legislation before it goes to the Cabinet as a whole, and which effectively decide – in conjunction with the weekly meetings (and more regular phone contact) between the three leaders – what the agenda and priorities of the Government are. The committees generally consist of the three leaders, the relevant ministers, very often the two finance/budget ministers Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe, senior officials and advisers. They usually meet on Mondays.
No leader has enough jobs to give away to satisfy all. With a three-party coalition, spaces are even tighter
They are a good deal more formal than the sort of “sofa government” that Leo Varadkar ran during his previous stint as Taoiseach. Then, Varadkar would hold rolling conversations with ministers and senior officials. But that was a very different sort of government, and a different sort of taoiseach’s office. Now everything has to be agreed between three parties. There is some nervousness in Fianna Fáil and the Greens that Varadkar understands this, and that the management of this government will require different rules than the Fine Gael-Independent coalition.
Varadkar’s management of the Coalition will be tested under pressure in coming months – maybe as early as next week – as the climate-action measures that are required by the Greens, and committed to in the programme for government, take concrete, policy shape. That was always going to be one of the faultlines of this administration. How Varadkar navigates it may well decide how this Government eventually ends.
Managing the reshuffle
Reshuffles are a headache for any party leader. Expectation builds in advance among promotion hopefuls that cannot be satisfied, no matter how many changes are made. The ranks of the disappointed always, always outnumber the ranks of the satisfied. For those hoping in vain, there will be the added sting of knowing that their chances of making it to ministerial office before the next election are now slim – unless, of course, there is a change of leadership in their party. No leader has enough jobs to give away to satisfy all. With a three-party coalition, spaces are even tighter.
The more change, the more disruption, the more people disappointed. A wide-ranging reshuffle causes more upset than a minimal one, says a veteran, as the disappointed conclude: all those jobs and he couldn’t find one for me? Those who are demoted, meanwhile, realise that their ministerial career is at an end under the current leader.
For these reasons and a few others, expectations have steadily declined in recent weeks that there would be changes at Cabinet and right through junior ministerial ranks. Though the reshuffle dominated Leinster House gossip this week, the uncontradicted consensus is that few changes will happen.
These two and a bit years – the next election must be held not after February 2025 – will decide Varadkar’s place in political history
There had been speculation that extra junior ministers would be created to meet demand but this was dismissed midweek by one insider on the basis that it would – he’s right about this – become the story of the reshuffle: politicians giving themselves jobs. That is not what the Government’s leaders hope for.
There will be grumpy politicians in the coming days; there always are. In Fianna Fáil especially, the question of the leadership will be discussed among those who hoped for promotion but didn’t get it. The question is whether they will do anything about it.
Run-in to the election
The end of the Government will be the spectre that always hovers near the Cabinet – or Cabinet committee – table from now on. That is the big difference between Martin’s tenure and Varadkar’s: the former’s ended with a unique swapping of the taoiseach’s office; the latter’s will end with the merciless judgment of the people in a general election. There is no question whose task is the more difficult.
These two and a bit years – the next election must be held not after February 2025 – will decide Varadkar’s place in political history. If his party experiences anything like the outcome of his first election as leader in 2020, he will be out on his ear, consigned to history as someone who did not fulfil early promise.
Or he could be the Fine Gael leader who reshaped politics to suit himself and his party, met the challenge of Sinn Féin, bridged the old divide with Fianna Fáil to form the new twin-engined force of the political centre in Ireland and won an astonishing fourth term in a row for his party. Don’t think this self-reflective politician has not mulled all this for himself, many times over.
The challenges to achieving the second outcome are enormous. His relationship with Martin, though productive, has never been marked by wholehearted trust on either side; now it is to be flipped entirely. Varadkar would hardly be human if he did not seek to underline his status as Taoiseach quickly, but he would also be foolish not to realise Martin will have understood and anticipated this. As it has been, the challenge for the two men, along with Green leader Eamon Ryan, is to work towards common goals that benefit each, in their own way, politically.
Difficulties abound. An unpredictable dynamic will be the future of Martin’s leadership. The past two years suggest forcefully that his opponents and critics in the party will become restive before too long, particularly if his party, deprived of the profile and power of the taoiseach’s office, suffers in the polls. The relationship between rural Fine Gael deputies and the Green Party will almost certainly give Varadkar headaches.
Meanwhile housing, the health service and the cost of living will trouble the administration. And all the while, the clock counts down towards 2025, while government TDs and candidates crunch their numbers, looking nervously around them at friends, frenemies and enemies alike.
As noted above, the midterm change is a novel departure in Irish politics. Its completion will be prelude to the longest, most unpredictable and most fascinating general election campaigns in Irish political history.
