If Bolsonaro loses Brazil’s election, will he step aside?

On Sunday, more than 150 million Brazilians are expected to cast their votes in one of the most divisive presidential elections in the country’s history.

Former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who served as president from 2003 to 2010, is currently leading 13 per cent in advance of the country’s current far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro. Some polls seem to indicate Lula could actually beat Bolsonaro in the first round of voting on October 2nd by reaching the 50 per cent threshold to be elected president.

However, even if the incumbent far-right leader does lose, he will not step aside quietly. Bolsonaro says his defeat would be “abnormal” and has never acknowledged the possibility that Lula could succeed him.

He has spent the past few years calling into question Brazil’s highly regarded electronic voting system and the integrity of the judges that oversee it and has also insinuated the armed forces into the vote-counting process. There are also fears regarding how Bolsonaro’s most fanatical supporters, many of who are now heavily armed after the watering down of gun ownership laws, will respond to defeat.

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On today’s podcast we ask what will happen on Sunday if Lula secures most of the votes? Will Bolsonaro refuse to leave and how dangerous is the threat of violence hanging over the election process?

And if Lula does return to presidential power, what will that mean for Brazil?

Tom Hennigan, who reports from South America for The Irish Times and lives in Sao Paulo, joins the In the News podcast to discuss the possible outcome of Sunday’s election and what it will mean for the people of Brazil.

In The News is presented by Sorcha Pollak and Conor Pope and produced by Declan Conlan, Suzanne Brennan and Aideen Finnegan.