JUST two weeks ago the Tanaiste challenged, us not to "abandon the duty of hope. Someone up there is still watching over the peace process, just about. It is no thanks to those who planned and carried out a notably ruthless attack on the British army's headquarters at Lisburn, but the results could have been much, much worse.
Those who sustained what were in some cases every serious injuries will bear the scars for the rest of their lives. For the rest of us, the overwhelming feeling must be one of relief that there were no bodies of children, no harrowing funeral scenes of a kind which would make it even more difficult to halt the spiral towards despair.
For some months, since Drumcree and even before that, there has been an air of unreality about even the most casual excursion to Belfast. No Border checkpoints - except, of course for a lone garda keeping watch for BSE carrying cows on the Southern side - no stopping and searching of cars in the city centre. It has been as though people feel that if only they can go on behaving normally, then everything will be all right.
Peace came in with the blaring of car horns, loud and defiant. It has been slipping away for weeks now and people have tried not to notice, hoping that ignoring the facts would make them go away. Until Monday.
A renewal of the IRA's campaign of violence in Northern Ireland has been on the cards since the recent seizure by the police in London of large quantities of explosives. This constituted a devastating and humiliating setback to the organisation. It made the IRA determined to demonstrate that it could strike against the might of the British government.
Some people may have pointed to the Canary Wharf bomb and argued that this was the only way to move the political process forward. For the IRA the argument is between the republican movement and the British government. That is what its campaign is about. As I said, Monday could have been a great deal worse.
There are still small signs of hope. As I write, it seems that the loyalists will refrain from being drawn back into the violence. It is in their political interests not to retaliate. For a start they command the high moral ground not only within Northern Ireland, but across the world.
But besides, their position as unionists is strengthened by the IRA's violence. No British government is going to discuss constitutional change, let alone abandon the Union, under the threat of terrorism.
THIS does not take away from the qualities of leadership demonstrated by David Ervine and his colleagues in the fringe loyalist parties. From the start of the present peace process, they have shown a remarkable political sophistication and a generosity towards both communities which has often been missing from the pronouncements of the Sinn Fein leadership.
It is an acute irony that this week it should have been left to David Ervine, the Shankill Road loyalist, to comment, "Wolfe Tone must be spinning in his grave." We would be a lot further along the way to a settlement if Sinn Fein had seized the opportunity to make common cause with these loyalist leaders and we can only hope that it is not now too late.
What else is there to light the way immediately ahead? The Americans have not abandoned the drive for peace. The White House has gone out of its way to praise the steady courage of the loyalist leadership. There are good political reasons for President Clinton, who has played a crucial role in the peace process, to insist that it is still on track.
But, as well as this, the United States is much better able to place the search for peace in Northern Ireland in the broader international context, to assess the scale of the problems, the relative lack of violence and how far people such as Gerry Adams and David Ervine have already moved to make this possible.
What is needed most urgently now is some move to bring clarity and credibility to the process. The one step which would transform the situation would be for the IRA to call a new and permanent ceasefire. Alas, there is very little hope of that unless steps are taken by the two governments to make it happen. The problem, which has been rendered even more intractable by the Lisburn bombs, is that neither government is now inclined to do anything which might be interpreted as "making concessions to terrorists".
But condemnation is not enough. If expressions of revulsion at the IRA's methods could have brought peace, we would have put this whole conflict behind us many years ago. Albert Reynolds is quite right when he says that what has happened is "a failure of politics". It is true that both the IRA and Sinn Fein have failed in not accepting that the resolution of the North's problems was bound to be a long and difficult business, and in not recognising the depth of unionist suspicions.
BUT the constitutional politicians involved in the peace process were faced with a particular challenge, to draw the former terrorists firmly into the practice of politics and to convince them that this was the only way to proceed. In that they failed.
The temptation now will be to retreat to the barren policies of the past, to condemn Sinn Fein and marginalise its leaders. That will undermine - those who have argued for peace. We have been told in recent days that the two governments are determined to press ahead with the all party talks at Stormont, if necessary without Sinn Fein.
But very few people believe that talks which exclude Mr Adams and his colleagues, and which are conducted against the background of IRA violence, can succeed. On the contrary, there is a virtual consensus among officials in Belfast and Dublin that it is only a matter of time before they grind to an ignominious halt.
If that is the case, might it not be better for the Irish Government to suggest that all party talks be prorogued until the political climate improves, which would probably mean until after a British general election? This would be an honest admission that no progress is possible at the moment, and would leave space for both governments to take steps to improve the political and economic climate in the North.
At the moment Northern Ireland still has peace of a kind. That is because, as one republican source put it to me, "the campaign is not really up and running."
But recent weeks have shown us that the IRA still exercises a deadly power to recruit young and bright people to its ranks. The danger is that if this renewed phase of its campaign does get into full swing, it will be a great deal more difficult to turn the republican movement back towards peace and politics.
In an obsessionally introspective organisation, the blame will be put on British perfidy and there will be renewed calls not to be tricked once again into making compromises.
These are ugly and unpalatable truths which we should try to face now, rather than regret them later. It is still worth going the extra mile for peace.