Where does Angela Merkel stand on Brexit?

When the news broke last Friday that the Leave campaign had won the referendum, Angela Merkel was the only EU leader besides UK prime minister David Cameron that US President Barack Obama called. So what are her views on Brexit?

First, she may be quietly hoping that the referendum can be reversed. Similar things have happened several times in EU history. Ms Merkel herself helped lead the repackaging of the EU constitution after French and Dutch voters rejected it in 2005. What followed was a "period of reflection", used to come up with a new plan - to introduce core elements of the constitution in the form of an intergovernmental treaty. The resulting Lisbon treaty entered into force in 2009.

Perhaps following this model she is playing for time, counterbalancing those in the EU who push for a quick Brexit, notably French President François Hollande as well as the Social Democrat party with which she in coalition. From Brussels, Martin Schulz, European Parliament president - another German Social Democrat - pushes for a quick Brexit, as does Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president.

Second, if Brexit happens despite procrastination - that is, if a British government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty - Ms Merkel’s priority will be to minimise the damage done by the divorce. That does not mean she would give the UK carte blanche. She is determined to protect the overall architecture of the EU, and she is well aware of the risk of disintegration if Britain gets a deal outside the EU that looks attractive for Eurosceptics inside it. But she is equally determined for the EU to maintain a good relationship with the UK that preserves as much substance as possible, keeping Britain as close as possible to the EU. Ms Merkel would be in favour of helping the UK to secure a good deal but she would have to balance this aim with the political goal of protecting the integrity of the EU.

Third, Ms Merkel's view of the vote - and the difference in her reaction from Mr Hollande - is partly shaped by history. It was French President Charles de Gaulle who in 1963 blocked UK membership. And, since Britain joined in 1973, France has often seen it as a competitor rather than a partner, tilting the balance towards free-market liberalism and impeding closer French-German union. Germany, by contrast, has always seen UK membership as an important counterweight to French dirigisme.

Meanwhile, at home, Mr Hollande is under pressure from an anti-EU movement and Ms Merkel is not. Marine Le Pen, the National Front leader, has promised a similar referendum in France. Alternative for Germany (AfD), the emerging rightwing populist party, is split on Brexit. Unlike in France, support for the EU in Germany is very high. Ms Merkel is naturally not as much concerned about contagion as Mr Hollande, who needs to demonstrate to the French that exit is not an option, to prevent next year's presidential election becoming a plebiscite over a Frexit vote. Mr Hollande, therefore, is going to be inclined to punish Britain.

Fourth, Ms Merkel does not belong to the camp of EU-federalists, who have always perceived Britain as a traitor to the cause of ever-closer union. Paris tends to this view, as does the German SPD and Mr Juncker. Ms Merkel is, in EU speak, an "intergovernmentalist", seeing the EU as an instrument of the nation states and not subscribing to the federalist view that Europe in its present form is only a very preliminary of what will one day be the United States of Europe. From the intergovernmentalist perspective, Brexit would be a huge loss.

Fifth, a big concern for Ms Merkel is the economic impact of a Brexit. The markets may be further shaken once Brexit negotiations start. Britain is Germany’s third-largest trading partner, after the US and France. At present it is entirely unclear what the terms of trade would be between an EU of 27 and Britain outside.

Finally, Ms Merkel is looking at Brexit from a global perspective. She is deeply concerned about Europe’s role in a globalised world. For her, the EU is an instrument that helps European states to deal with the challenges of globalisation by making them more competitive and by giving them collectively greater weight on the global stage.

A Brexit would certainly diminish that role. The size of the EU economy would shrink and the union would lose a country that has helped Europe to develop a global perspective. Especially in the past few years Germany and Britain have often taken similar positions on conflicts and questions of global concern. Ms Merkel appears concerned that Brexit could lead to a decline of European influence, especially with regard to China. It would also make the union a less attractive partner for the US.

The best outcome for Ms Merkel would be if the British government would simply not trigger Article 50. The second best would be an agreement that keeps the UK close to the EU in terms of market access and political co-operation. What the German chancellor wants to prevent is an inimical divorce that would destroy trust and humiliate Britain.

The writer is a foreign-policy analyst based in Heidelberg and Berlin. His Twitter account is @ulrichspeck

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