OPINION:Rejection of Lisbon will probably precipitate an EU crisis from which there would seem to be no benefit to Ireland, writes Gavin Barrett.
YESTERDAY'S IRISH Times/TNS mrbi poll showed 35 per cent of those polled now intend to vote against the Lisbon Treaty and only 30 per cent in favour. This now makes a No vote the more probable result of the referendum on June 12th.
What would the consequences of a negative result be? This is not an easy question to answer. A vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty seems to involve the more predictable of the two possible outcomes. Were Ireland to vote Yes, the European Union would continue as it has up until now, but with a series of modifications set out in the Lisbon Treaty in place, giving rise to largely foreseeable consequences.
A No vote, in contrast, has a much less certain result. No campaigners have painted a rosy picture in the event of a victory for their side. They claim matters will go on as they are now until the whole Lisbon Treaty settlement is subsequently renegotiated in a way which they claim will better suit Ireland's interests. Sinn Féin in particular has produced a lengthy renegotiation wish-list. (The Irish Times, May 20th, 2008).
Taoiseach Brian Cowen - perhaps wary of being accused of trying to frighten the electorate - has said little on the topic.
His predecessor, Bertie Ahern, in contrast asserted baldly that "it would be a 'disaster' for this country not to pass the Lisbon Treaty" and that "it would have repercussions that would severely damage us" (The Irish Times, April 28th, 2008).
Where does the truth lie? It seems that a negative result will clearly give rise to a number of deeply serious challenges for the EU. A No in an Irish referendum would involve halting for a second time the seven-year-long reform process of the EU - this time with Ireland alone shouldering the responsibility.
This would be a crisis for the EU ranking in seriousness with the outcomes of the French and Dutch referendums on the constitutional treaty. The Lisbon Treaty itself was a Plan B designed to get the EU out of the constitutional treaty crisis. Now it too would have run into the ground.
It is true, it must be said, that a No vote on June 12th would not cause any immediate collapse in the functioning of the EU, which could continue temporarily to adopt laws on the basis of rules agreed at Nice in 2000. But the other member states will clearly not permit this situation to continue for long.
Our European neighbours see it is crucial to their peaceful and prosperous relations with other states that the EU works and that it works well. Since 2000, they have twice gone to enormous efforts to agree treaties demonstrating their unhappiness with the Nice regime with its illogical voting arrangements and their anxiety to be rid of it.
If the Lisbon Treaty is rejected, Ireland will be compelling the EU to operate on an ongoing basis without real agreement as to its ground rules. The frustration felt by our fellow member states will be real and intense - particularly given that they feel (with justification) that they have conceded to Ireland everything it could reasonably have asked for in the treaty negotiations.
The Bertie Ahern-predicted disaster referred also to relations between Ireland and the EU. A negative Irish vote is certainly not going to gain this country any goodwill at European level - obviously a major consideration for a country as small as Ireland. But an even greater fear must be that any negotiated resolution of the consequent crisis would also leave us in a weaker and less central position in Europe.
Five possibilities exist in the event of a No:
1: The collapse of the entire EU reform process for the foreseeable future. For the reasons stated above, this seems wholly unlikely to happen.
2: The renegotiation of the entire Lisbon settlement. This is the Sinn Féin scenario. It seems utterly unrealistic. It would involve the delicately balanced settlement being torn up, with no guarantee that this particular Humpty Dumpty would ever be put back together again. Arriving at the Lisbon Treaty has already taken seven years of negotiations. The other member states will not put themselves through this again, with no guarantee of a successful outcome.
3: The agreement of a mini-treaty containing some but not all of the reforms in the Lisbon Treaty. This was originally suggested by French president Nicolas Sarkozy as the solution to the constitutional treaty crisis and rejected. It seems an unlikely solution to any Lisbon crisis as well, as although it might not require a constitutional referendum in Ireland, it would still involve the other 26 member states being stymied in relation to a broad range of reforms they have agreed upon.
4: The continuation of the Lisbon arrangements by our 26 fellow member states with Ireland excluded from the reformed EU in some form or another. This is the disaster scenario for Ireland. It would also be an option which would create considerable difficulties for our fellow member states - perhaps even requiring the agreement of a new treaty by them - but Irish opposition to the Lisbon Treaty might make it seem worthwhile. The thought has certainly occurred to some serious minds - as last week's reported statements by the chairman of the European Parliament's Constitutional Affairs Committee, Jo Leinen MEP (The Irish Times, May 31st) and similar statements by Andrew Duff MEP indicate.
5: The maintenance of the Lisbon settlement but with special arrangements for Ireland. This might involve some special protocols - followed by a further referendum in Ireland to see if Ireland will accept the Lisbon Treaty with these protocols. The difficulty here would be agreeing what such protocols would concern. Even if this possibility did unfold, it is hard to see why the Irish electorate should choose this option on June 12th. In reality, Ireland does not need any such protocols, having gained everything it needs in the current treaty negotiations.
In short, a No vote on June 12th will involve a voluntary leap into a series of crises. It is difficult to see how the resolution of these crises, if and when it comes, can produce much benefit for Ireland.
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Gavin Barrett is a senior lecturer in the school of law at University College Dublin, specialising in European Union law